In an annual report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Beijing, China, forecast 2025 and 2026 chicken production to be up from previous estimates.
2025 PRODUCTION UP
For this year, the difference is a revision upward as higher-than-anticipated supply in the first half of the year reflected producer optimism for expanded consumer demand, the report said. Production increased for white broilers, yellow broilers and hybrid broilers.
(An internet search described white broilers as those that were bred to be faster growing birds with white feathers, while yellow broilers are the more traditional varieties, which often are older birds because they grow more slowly. One might be considered to be more economical to produce while the other may be considered to be more flavorful.)
Shifts in consumer consumption patterns toward chicken also contributed to higher 2025 output expectations, the FAS report said.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics confirmed those trends, reporting a more than 7% year-over-year increase in poultry meat production during the last half of 2025, the FAS said.
2026 PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The Beijing FAS office forecast China’s 2026 chicken production to grow at a slower rate than is being seen this year. White and hybrid broilers were expected to continue driving the growth, while projected yellow broiler production was forecast to remain stable.
“According to the latest industry data, white broilers account for roughly 70% of total chicken meat production, compared to 17%-20% for yellow broilers and 8%-10% for hybrid broilers,” the FAS report said. “About five years ago, white broilers made up only around 50% of production. This ongoing shift toward white and hybrid broilers is expected to sustain moderate production gains in 2026.”
RISING CONSUMPTION SEEN
Chicken consumption this year and next was expected to continue growing, the FAS report said. This year’s growth was described as an upward revision, while the 2026 increase was characterized as true growth.
The FAS office raised its estimate for China’s 2025 chicken meat consumption mainly on recovering demand for white broilers in industrial catering and fast-food restaurant outlets. But while consumption grew, supply expanded at a faster pace, driven by the release of high grandparent stock inventories and continued capacity expansion by integrated producers.
For 2026, the FAS forecast that China’s chicken meat consumption will continue growing, led primarily by white broilers. Chicken meat remains a relatively low-cost animal protein in an uncertain economic environment. Also, institutional catering, including schools and workplace cafeterias provides stable demand for white broilers. And younger consumers and fitness-oriented groups increasingly seek high-protein, low-fat food options, driving demand for white chicken meat.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $240.51 per cwt to $240.77, compared with last week’s range of $238.00 to $245.28 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $376.69 per cwt to $376.99, compared with $375.80 to $385.32.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $.066 per cwt at $381.39 while select was up $2.17 at $362.09. The choice/select spread narrowed to $19.30 from $22.13 with 91 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $431.24 per cwt, and 50% beef was $150.66.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.05 at $1.10 to $1.25 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.21 3/4, down $0.02 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $358.78 per cwt, down $1.85. This compares with Monday’s Sep contract settlement of $362.72, up $3.57.