The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service based in The Hague, Netherlands, said in a report Tuesday that the EU’s beef and pork production was expected to turn down.
A dim economic outlook and mounting regulations are pressuring cattle herd sizes while the pig cycle is near a multi-year low.
2025 HERD TO SHRINK FURTHER
A dim economic outlook and mounting regulations was prompting FAS forecasters to say the EU cattle herd and the calf crop were expected to shrink for the ninth straight year in 2025.
The bulk of that cut was expected to take place in western Europe, the FAS report said. In central Europe, dairy and beef cow herds were stabilizing along with a concentration and commercialization of the sector.
Cattle slaughter this year, was forecast to accelerate, caused by relatively high prices for steer and cow carcasses, the FAS said. In western Europe, an added factor was disease. Bluetongue virus (type BTV-3) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease to a smaller herd and calf crop was projected to decrease 2025 slaughter.
And, EU cattle exports were dropping because of significantly lower shipments to Turkey, the FAS said.
A hike in slaughter and elevated carcass weights were forecast to increase EU beef production by 2.2% in 2024, the report said. Assuming stable slaughter weights, EU beer production was projected to decline by 1.5% in 2025.
Despite the increased production, the EU beef market remained tight as imports continued to shrink and exports surge, the FAS said. The EU’s main export market for cattle, Turkey was shifting from importing cattle to importing beef, resulting in forecasts for a beef export increase of more than 10% this year and remaining relatively high next year.
SWINE HERD SIZE BOTTOMING
Last year, EU piglet production reached a record low, while feed prices fell and piglet demand rose, the FAS said. These record piglet prices tempted breeders to expand their sow herds, resulting in a larger herd at the start of 2024.
So, because there are more sows, the 2024 pig crop was expected to rebound, the FAS said.
In line with the pig crop trend, slaughter was forecast to increase by 0.9% this year and anticipated to fall by 1.7% next year, the FAS said. However, trade in live swine plays a minor role in the total swine balance of the EU.
This year, EU pork production was reinforced by higher weights at slaughter, the FAS said. EU pork production was forecast to increase by 2.0% this year and decline by 1.7% next year.
More production from Spain also could cut into EU trade, the FAS said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $181.20 per cwt to $182.83, compared with last week’s range of $179.95 to $184.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.25 per cwt to $290.12, compared with $283.90 to $289.32.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.66 per cwt at $303.91 while select was up $0.081 at $292.22. The choice/select spread narrowed to $11.69 from $12.43 with 133 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $370.86 per cwt, and 50% beef was $94.34.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.47 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.12 1/2 a bushel, up $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $243.44 per cwt, up $0.76. This compares with Tuesday’s Sep contract settlement of $243.30, up $2.00.