The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service Thursday said that in 2024, EU pork, beef and chicken meat exports were forecast to account for 15% of global exports, marking a significant decline from 20% in 2019.
In comparison, total Brazil pork, beef and chicken meat exports were forecast to increase from 20% to 26% during the same period, while the US was expected to remain virtually unchanged at 22%.
The forecasts came in FAS’ Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report.
COVID CHANGES THINGS
COVID 19-induced changes to meat consumption, elevated input costs, animal diseases and increased regulatory burdens reshaped animal production among major producers, the FAS said. This is particularly true for the EU, where total pork, beef and chicken meat production fell 2% from 2019 through 2022 and was anticipated to decline another 2% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.
EU veterinary medicine regulations as well as forthcoming animal welfare legislation have created uncertainty for producers, disincentivized investment and increased production costs, the FAS said.
PORK: In 2024, EU pork exports were expected to decline 25% compared with 2019 and account for 15% of production, down from 19% in 2019, the FAS report said. In addition to growing regulatory burdens, EU swine producers continued to face challenges controlling the effect of African Swine Fever, which has led to reductions in the swine herd and limited exports to some markets.
As production contracts, the share intended for domestic consumption grew at the expense of exports, the FAS said.
BEEF: Like pork, EU beef production has been negatively affected by growing regulatory requirements and was forecast to decline 8% between 2019 and 2024, the FAS said. While the percent of production exported was only expected to decline from 10% to 9% over the same period, exports and production continue to fall.
2024 global production was forecast to be virtually unchanged at 59.1 million tonnes as increases in Brazil, China and India are offset by declines in the US, Argentina, Canada and the EU, the FAS said.
Brazil production was expected to rise 3% to a record 10.8 million tonnes as economic recovery supports domestic demand.
China production estimates were higher because of a marginal increase in cow inventory, while India’s production is driven by rising slaughter to meet increasing international and domestic demand.
CHICKEN: EU chicken production was forecast to grow 2% from 2019 through 2024, the FAS said. However, exports as a percent of production were forecast at 16% in 2024, down from 20% in 2019.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza has constrained production growth and hence exportable supplies, the FAS said. HPAI-related trade restrictions also curtailed exports.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $182.00 per cwt to $185.26, compared with last week’s range of $182.69 to $187.04 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $287.53 per cwt to $290.70, compared with $286.98 to $292.34.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.91 per cwt at $301.19 while select was off $0.28 at $275.02. The choice/select spread widened to $26.17 from $24.98 with 131 loads of fabricated product and 34 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.45 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.96 a bushel, up $0.08.
No live cattle contracts were posted for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $250.30 per cwt, up $0.51. This compares with Thursday’s Oct contract settlement of $252.02, up $1.85.