The USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service in Beijing, China, last week forecasted lower Chinese beef imports in 2026 as China implements a tariff-rate quota framework safeguard measure that caped import volumes amid continued weak demand.
The forecast came in a semi-annual livestock and products report that was posted on the USDA website.
The FAS office also forecasted 2026 Chinese pork imports to decline modestly in 2026, as ample domestic supply and China’s anti-dumping duties on EU pork raise import costs and weigh on demand.
IN SUMMARY:
–Cattle Production: The FAS forecasted 2026 beef cattle production in 2026 to decline as herd liquidation continues and breeding cow inventories remain constrained. Producers remained cautious in replenishing inventories and retaining breeding cows. Although cattle prices rose in 2025, profitability stayed thin, and production efficiency limits any near-term recovery in calf output.
China’s official data also showed that total cattle inventory declined in 2025, which continued to pressure the production base, the FAS said. Because this sector remains dominated by small- and medium-scale producers with stable calving rates and no significant management changes, production efficiency is unlikely to offset this trend.
The FAS Beijing office estimated that reduced breeding cow availability rather than changes in production efficiency will drive the projected decline in cattle production in 2026.
–Cattle Imports: The FAS also forecasted cattle imports in 2026 to remain low, reflecting weak investment incentives under a subdued high-end beef market. China’s live cattle imports contracted sharply in 2025 amid weak economic conditions and subdued food service demand.
–Beef Production: The FAS forecasted beef production in 2026 to decline because of fewer slaughter-ready cattle. Supply-side fundamentals, rather than short-term price movements, primarily will limit 2026 beef production.
Even if live cattle prices continue to strengthen in 2026 and encourage improved breeding incentives, any resulting increase in breeding activity would not translate into higher slaughter volumes within the year, the FAS said.
The FAS revised its 2025 beef production estimate upward based on official slaughter and output data, while the underlying contraction in cattle inventories will weigh on production in 2026.
–Beef Imports: The FAS revised its 2025 beef import estimate downward, reflecting weaker domestic demand and higher imported beef prices compared with 2024. For 2026, the Beijing office forecasted beef imports to decline further, as safeguard measures introduce a tariff-rate quota framework that caps import volumes and dampens traders’ purchasing incentives, particularly amid soft consumption conditions.
–Swine Production: The FAS forecasted swine production in 2026 to remain stable. Although sow inventories declined, producers largely have realized productivity gains. Weak prices and tighter margins are expected to limit incentives for further expansion.
–Swine Imports: The FAS forecasted 2026 Chinese swine imports to remain subdued. Demand for imported genetics and breeding stock persists, but overall volumes are constrained by domestic supply sufficiency.
–Pork Production: The FAS office forecasted China’s pork production in 2026 to remain stable. Lighter carcass weights largely offset slightly higher slaughter volumes, as Beijing continues to enforce swine sector inventory and slaughter weight control policies.
–Pork Imports: The FAS forecasted pork imports in 2026 to decline modestly amid ample domestic supply and persistently weak consumption. China’s anti-dumping duties on EU pork will raise import costs and further weigh on imported pork demand.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $249.66 per cwt to $250.01, compared with last week’s range of $242.46 to $255.40 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $389.13 per cwt to $391.91, compared with $381.78 to $394.78.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.52 per cwt at $369.22 while select was up $3.57 at $364.31. The choice/select spread narrowed to $4.91 from $5.96 with 52 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $426.22 per cwt, and 50% beef was $147.40.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.98 to $1.12 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.27 1/2, unchanged.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $375.80 per cwt, down $1.57. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $364.30, down $3.72.