FAS Forecasts Steady 2023 China Poultry Production

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service reported this month that poultry production in China next year was expected to remain stable at 14.3 million tonnes.

Chicken consumption in China has increased since the 2020 outbreak of African Swine Fever in its hog population that necessitated the culling of millions of hogs to control the disease.  China habitually has been a strong pork-consuming market, but the lack of available protein forced many consumers to eat more chicken.

Improved processing technologies and ready-to-eat poultry products are boosting consumer interest in poultry products in China, the FAS said.  Companies are expanding food processing facilities and investing in advanced technologies to produce the so called ‘3Rs’: ready-to-use, ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat foods.

Many consumers, particularly younger consumers in first and second tier cities, were embracing healthy eating trends such as cooking and dining at home at higher rates than before the pandemic, the FAS said.

 

WHITE FEATHERS GET THE NOD

 

Demand for affordable chicken products was expected to remain steady, although white-feather broiler’s share of the overall chicken production next year was expected to increase, while yellow-feather broiler production was expected to decline.

Poultry World says large investments in poultry production were adding white-feather production capacity in China.  Factories, canteens and fast food restaurants are the primary outlets for white-feathered birds.

Yellow-feathered broilers “are diverse in species, price and breeding cycles (fast, medium and slow-growth chickens).  They come from indigenous species, and because their genetics can be domestically produced, grandparent and parent yellow-feathered chickens are much cheaper than those of the white-feathered variety.”  Live bird and wholesale wet markets are the primary retail outlets for these birds.

The FAS said 2023 Chinese demand for poultry products, particularly white broiler products, was expected to increase from the institutional and retail sectors to reach 14.475 million tonnes, a 1% increase over 2022.

 

IMPORTS VS EXPORTS

 

China’s 2023 chicken meat imports were expected by the FAS to reach 750,000 tonnes after declining in 2022 because of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in various countries, including the US, limited availability.  However, this could be restrained by an evolving global animal disease situation (HPAI) in 2023.

And, Chinese imports of US poultry were expected to be held in check by a strong US dollar versus other suppliers like Brazil and domestic production.

China’s poultry products exports to Hong Kong, Japan and other markets were expected to grow by 5% to 575,000 tonnes as consumer demand in other countries returns to normal, the FAS said.

In the first half of this year, Chinese traders faced high prices for imported poultry products and temporary closures of cold storage warehouses from COVID restrictions where imported products were stored, the FAS said.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $142.00 to $147.86 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $141.00 to $145.00 FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $222.00 to $227.22 per cwt, versus $221.34 to $227.23.

The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.59 per cwt at $248.43 while select was down $2.14 at $221.21.  The choice/select spread widened to $27.22 from $24.49 with 133 loads of fabricated product and 39 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.610 to $2.45 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.00 over Dec, which settled at $6.67 1/2, up $0.01 1/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $177.82 per cwt down $0.90.  This compares with Tuesday’s Sep contract settlement of $175.70, down $1.17, and Oct’s $176.12, down $0.95.