The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service in Canberra, Aus., said in a Global Agricultural Information Network report Wednesday that Australian beef production and exports were forecast to reach a new record in 2025, following a record level of exports in 2024.
The last peak in beef production and exports occurred a decade earlier, in 2014 and 2015, both driven by strong US demand linked to herd rebuilding, the FAS report said. Similarly, analysts anticipated the next US herd rebuild will begin officially in 2025.
However, US cattle supply in 2024 was exceptionally low, marked by a sharp decline in cow slaughter, the FAS said. The high Australian adult cattle slaughter forecast for 2025—comparable to 2024 and the previous peaks—continues to be driven by an elevated female slaughter rate.
LIVE CATTLE EXPORTS SEEN FLAT
Live cattle exports were expected to remain relatively stable in 2025 at just more than half the peak recorded in 2019, the FAS said. However, exports to Australia’s largest market, Indonesia, may be disrupted later in 2025 if Brazil achieves Foot and Mouth Disease-free status.
Logistical challenges may limit Brazil’s ability to capitalize on this, the FAS said. Additionally, Australia may see increased live cattle exports to Vietnam because of expanded processing capacity.
With Australia’s herd-rebuilding phase now complete, the industry is well positioned to meet rising US demand as Australia enters its herd rebuild in 2025, the FAS said. The US was expected to remain Australia’s largest beef export market, further strengthening its position after surpassing Japan in 2023.
However, ongoing tariff challenges could affect trade and supply chains significantly, the FAS said. Meanwhile, China’s recent 10% tariff announcement on US beef imports may enhance the competitiveness of Australian beef in the Chinese market, potentially redirecting some exports away from the US.
This dynamic introduces additional market uncertainty in the short term.
PORK PRODUCTION GROWTH SEEN
Australian pork production was projected to grow by 4% in 2025, marking the fourth straight year of expansion, the FAS said. This increase is driven largely by rising pork prices and declining feed prices in 2024, which encouraged increased pig production that will flow through to higher pork production in the forecast year, the FAS said.
While much of the additional supply was expected to meet rising domestic demand from a growing population, exports also were anticipated to increase.
Feed costs are the largest expense for pork producers, and historical trends suggest that when domestic pork prices exceed feed grain prices, industry production tends to expand. Since mid-2024, this price gap has widened significantly, creating favorable conditions for increased pork production.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $199.50 per cwt to $206.16, compared with last week’s range of $197.87 to $202.79 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $311.12 per cwt to $317.03, compared with $310.41 to $321.60.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $6.29 per cwt at $329.61 while select was down $0.55 at $308.68. The choice/select spread widened to $20.93 from $14.09 with 85 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $381.53 per cwt, and 50% beef was $126.23.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.62, up $0.03 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $284.65 per cwt, up $0.54. This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $286.82, up $1.85.