Speaking at an annual economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and held in Jackson Hole, WY., Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, the Federal Open Market Committee’s overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal.
“Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy,” Powell said. “Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone,” and without it, “we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.”
IT TAKES TIME
Restoring price stability will take time and requires using the FOMC’s tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance, he said. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.
Moreover, there very likely will be some softening of labor market conditions, Powell said. While higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring inflation down, they also will bring pain to households and businesses.
Those “are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation,” he said. “But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”
ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWING
The US economy clearly is slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession, Powell said. While the latest economic data have been mixed, the economy continues to show strong underlying momentum.
The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers, he said.
Inflation is running well above 2%, and high inflation continues to spread through the economy, Powell said. While July’s lower inflation readings were welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before it is confident inflation is moving down.
The FOMC is moving its policy stance to a place that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%, he said. At the July meeting, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25% to 2.5%, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection’s range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run.
“In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2% and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause,” Powell said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $142.00 to $147.63 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $142.00 to $148.37. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $224.67 to $228.22 per cwt, versus $220.22 to $229.10.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.45 per cwt at $258.34 while select was down $1.94 at $237.74. The choice/select spread widened to $20.60 from $20.11 with 124 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.50 to $2.60 a bushel over the Sep futures, which settled at $6.73 3/4 a bushel and for southwest Kansas were at $0.85 over Dec, which settled at $6.70 1/2, down $0.06 3/4.
No contracts were tendered for delivery against the Aug live cattle contract Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $183.04 per cwt up $0.04. This compares with Wednesday’s Sep contract settlement of $182.45, up $0.27.