Fed steer and heifer dressed weights could be topping seasonally, heading for an annual trough in June 2026.
That conclusion was drawn from a look at Livestock Marketing Information Center charts of USDA slaughter weight data that showed the seasonality of the dressed-weight trend. Charts of fed steer and heifer dressed weights show the strong tendency for carcass weights to peak about this time of the year and bottom out in June.
SEASONALITIES
Part of the reason for the change is the US climate and the physiology of cattle.
Cattle going to slaughter now are those that were placed on feed as yearlings after spending a majority of their lives on pasture. These calves had time to grow and tended to be placed into feedlots at a larger size.
Cattle being placed on feed now tend to be younger with no place to go besides the feedlot. They are smaller and will finish their time in the feedlot at a smaller size, yielding a smaller, lighter carcass.
Those habits produce an average weekly carcass weight that, when plotted on a line graph, show the seasonal trends in carcass weights. Thus, conclusions can be drawn about likely future carcass weight changes.
WEIGHTS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED
The forecast for lighter carcass weights in coming months does not mean the run of higher-than-average carcass weights and beef production per head is over.
The last time cattle dressed weights dipped below the average was in February last year, and that was only because cows and bulls were factored into the equations. When fed stees and heifers are examined individually, it becomes clear that dressed weights were higher than the five-year average last year and again this year.
With the shortage of available feeder cattle currently, there is no reason to think packer buyers will be more interested in larger cattle to get the most beef tonnage they can get. There’s also no reason to think feedlot managers won’t maximize per-head returns by feeding to lighter weights and then trying to replace them with expensive feeder cattle.
WILL IT LAST?
Going forward, feeder cattle supplies likely will increase slowly in the coming months and years as cow/calf operators take a chance on retaining a heifer or two to add to their herd size.
The change will be slow, though, because it will be hard to take the lost-opportunity loss to grow the heifer into a cow. The investment is large enough that the return on investment takes multiple calves to recover.
Still, the market needs the beef, and the draw will be there to produce more, and the extra supplies will pressure prices and then carcass weights—sometime.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $225.74 per cwt to $232.14, compared with last week’s range of $218.00 to $227.15 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $353.34 per cwt to $363.91, compared with $339.66 to $354.27.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.19 per cwt at $357.28 while select was off $2.46 at $343.97. The choice/select spread widened to $13.31 from $9.66 with 74 loads of fabricated product and 14 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $392.22 per cwt, and 50% beef was $128.76.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.44, down $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday. Twenty steer contracts were retendered at one and reclaimed at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $350.05 per cwt, up $0.26. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $340.27, down $1.25.