Fifty percent lean boneless beef prices appear to be topping out their summer peak as 90% boneless beef continues to follow last year’s trend at a higher level.
Data from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service that was compiled and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver showed the weekly average price for 50% lean beef shot higher in the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July but dipped last week. But the data showed 90% lean beef continuing to rise in a gentler slope with no sign of seasonal topping yet.
50% LEAN TOPPING?
Are 50% lean boneless beef prices topping? Maybe.
An LMIC graph of fresh 50% lean boneless beef prices shows a seasonal peak the second week of May at $148.69 per cwt. At the time this year, the weekly price was $110.12 per cwt, and last year, it was $76.31.
But since then, the weekly price this year rose to the latest high two weeks ago of $261.99, which easily could be the annual high for 2025. It far outranks last year’s high of $172.29, which came the third week of August.
Once the weekly price of 50% lean boneless beef tops out for the year, it begins a descent into the end of the year with only minor, one- or two-week bumps. It doesn’t begin a general rise until the last week of December. There is a small peak the second week of January that gives way to the seasonal push higher within a couple of weeks.
90% STILL RISING
Despite the apparent topping of weekly prices for 50% lean beef, 90% lean beef prices keep rising.
The price last week was $418.19 per cwt, up $2.28, or 0.55%, from $415.91 a week earlier, up $42.44, or 11.3%, from $375.75 a year earlier and up $155.50, or 59.2%, from the 2019-2023 average of $262.69 per cw.
The five-year average price tends to peak around the last week of May at $270.36 per cwt and tends to wind down from there to the third week of December at $240.95 per cwt. Last year, the weekly average price topped out at $375.92 per cwt in the last week of August.
Last year’s weekly prices for 90% lean beef also formed a parabolic curve on a line graph from the LMIC, so if this year’s price curve shows a similar topping pattern, an annual price top may be difficult to spy for a few weeks after it has been set.
Wholesale prices for both categories of boneless beef have shown some volatility the past few weeks, but have held up well in the face of rising inflation. Some retail pushback is being felt in some cuts, but lean, boneless beef, which is ground for hamburger remains firm.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $230.88 per cwt to $241.02, compared with last week’s range of $229.17 to $241.74 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $361.69 per cwt to $369.83, compared with $350.68 to $378.64.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $4.98 per cwt at $367.52 while select was off $2.55 at $345.39. The choice/select spread narrowed to $22.13 from $24.56 with 142 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $419.30 per cwt, and 50% beef was $222.06.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.98 1/2, down $0.00 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $327.44 per cwt, up $0.61. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $331.52, up $3.25.