For those thinking US cattle herd rebuilding could commence quickly, there are warning signs embedded in weekly Crop Condition Reports from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The weekly crop condition and progress reports show total US range and pasture conditions have worsened since the first of May when USDA measurements for the year begin. If there is pasture to support meaningful herd rebuilding, it is in the Southern Plains, the Corn Belt and the Northeast. Beyond these areas, the percentage of pastures rated poor or very poor was higher than last year or the 2019-2023 average.
FORAGE CONDITION WORSE
For the second week of May, US pasture and range conditions were rated 36% poor to very poor, up three percentage points from 33% the first week of May, which itself was worse than the same week in 2024 or the previous five-year average. This week’s poor-to-very-poor average was up 12 percentage points from 24% the same week last year and up 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average of 30.4%.
Generally, US ranges and pastures get better with lower poor-to-very-poor readings into June. From there, conditions decline slowly into October.
So, to see conditions worsen at this time of year is concerning for those looking for signs of herd rebuilding this year. There could be pockets where herd rebuilding is tried with some success, but there also could be pockets where it is tried but is unsuccessful because of a lack of hoped-for forage.
WESTERN REGION POOR
Pasture and range conditions in Monday’s NASS report were reported at 33.5% poor to very poor, up from 32.75% the previous week, up from 14.62% the same week last year and up from 27.13% 2019-2023 average.
In this region, pasture and range conditions usually get better into late May or early June and then decline through the rest of the crop year. Last year, they got much better through May and then began to decline unevenly until they got worse than the average in September.
PLAINS STATES DISTINCTLY POOR
Monday’s report showed range and pasture conditions in this region to be 38.71% poor to very poor, up from 34.43% the week prior, up from 12.29% in the same week last year and up from the average of 28.66%.
Pastures in this region generally improve greatly into mid- to late June and then decline through the rest of the growing season. Last year, they improved into mid-June and they declined, crossing the average about the first week of September.
CTTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $220.35 per cwt to $224.15, compared with last week’s range of $216.84 to $222.23 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $342.45 per cwt to $357.95, compared with $336.28 to $357.17.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $1.96 per cwt at $350.10 while select was down $0.76 at $334.47. The choice/select spread widened to $15.63 from $12.91 with 110 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $377.47 per cwt, and 50% beef was $120.14.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.42 1/2, down $0.05 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $302.40 per cwt, up $1.37. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $302.82, up $0.27.