The latest Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report issued by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in April provides updates and forecasts of beef, pork, and chicken meat production, consumption, exports, and imports for the major countries in each market.
GLOBAL PRODUCTION SEEN UP SLIGHTLY
Global beef production was projected to increase slightly in 2023 with decreased production in the US, the largest beef producing country, but continued growth in Brazil, the number two beef producer as well as number three China, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in a letter to Extension agents called Cow-Calf Corner.
Beef production was projected to be steady to slightly lower in the European Union, the number four beef producer, along with India (number five), Argentina (number six) and Canada (number nine), Peel said. Increases also were forecast for Mexico (number seven) and Australia (number eight).
Total beef consumption was forecast to decrease in the US, the largest beef consuming nation, he said. China/Hong Kong was the second largest beef consuming region with continued growth projected this year.
Brazil and the EU were the third and fourth largest beef consuming countries, respectively, with both expected to have slight consumption growth this year, Peel said. The top four beef consuming nations are projected to account for 65% of global beef consumption. India is the number five beef consuming country, followed by Argentina and Mexico.
BEEF EXPORTS SEEN RISING SLIGHTLY
Total beef exports were projected to increase just slightly in 2023, Peel said. Brazil, the largest beef exporting country, could increase slightly, with US exports expected to decrease slightly with declining beef production, dropping the US from second to third place as a beef exporting country behind India.
Australia continues to recover and rebuild its beef industry with exports increasing and putting Australia just behind the US as the number four beef exporter, he said.
Those top four beef exporting countries account for 61% of global beef exports, Peel said. The next tier of beef exporting countries includes Argentina, New Zealand, the EU, Canada, Uruguay, Paraguay and Mexico.
The China/Hong Kong market is by far the largest beef importing region with total imports more than double the beef imports into the US, the second largest beef importing country, he said. These top two markets account for 51% of global beef imports.
Beef imports into China/HK were forecast to be steady this year after growing rapidly the past six years, Peel said. US beef imports were projected to increase in 2023 as declining beef production will reduce supplies, especially supplies of processing beef.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $171.00 per cwt to $181.74, compared with last week’s range of $174.50 to $182.37 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $274.04 per cwt to $279.39, compared with $274.41 to $284.12.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.15 per cwt at $309.09 while select was down $1.54 at $287.12. The choice/select spread widened to $21.97 from $20.58 with 83 loads of fabricated product and nine loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.71 to $1.83 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $5.88 1/2 a bushel, up $0.08 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $202.70 per cwt, down $0.12. This compares with Wednesday’s May contract settlement of $203.42 per cwt, down $2.52.