Global beef production is forecast to decrease slightly in 2023 as production decreases in the US and European Union more than offset increasing beef production in Australia and modest increases in Mexico and India, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist.
Writing in a letter to Extension agents called Cow-Calf Corner, Peel said changes in beef production and consumption will affect global beef exports and imports in the coming year.
BRAZIL TO REMAIN LARGEST EXPORTER
Brazil was expected to remain the largest beef exporter with production increasing slightly in 2023, Peel said. Brazil beef exports were limited by decreased beef imports in China.
Beef exports from Brazil are significantly higher than the next three exporters, he said.
Australia, after years of drought decreased cattle numbers and beef production, is now in rebuilding mode, Peel said. Cattle prices there are falling from historically high levels, and beef exports were forecast to increase, helping Australia regain the number two spot.
The US, the number two beef exporting country in 2022 with record or near-record exports, likely will see exports decrease with declining beef production, higher beef prices and a continued strong dollar, Peel said. The US likely will drop to fourth place, a position it frequently has occupied in recent years.
India is the remaining of the top four beef exporters with steady shipments expected in 2023, he said. India exports large quantities of water buffalo meat (carabeef) to low-end markets in Indonesia and Malaysia.
CHINA, THE LARGEST IMPORTER
China/Hong Kong has been the largest beef importing country in the world since 2018 and may be the largest by a factor of two in 2023, Peal said. Prior to the rapid growth in China/HK imports in recent years, the US was the largest beef importing country for many years.
Hon Kong was the leading destination for US beef in October, up 21% from a year earlier, the US Meat Export Federation said in a release, quoting USDA data. January-October exports to the region increased 23%.
Beef imports in China/KH may decrease in 2023 for the first time ever as the country struggles with a recession and continued zero-COVID controls, he said.
The US may see beef imports increase modestly as beef production falls and supplies of processing beef drop sharply, Peal said. Rising US beef prices and the strong dollar could further attract beef into the US from other markets.
The number three and four beef import markets, Japan and South Korea, were expected to see minor increases in beef imports in 2023, Peal said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $155.91 to $158.09 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $155.00 to $159.07. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $243.78 to $247.79 per cwt, versus $243.70 to $251.95.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $4.23 per cwt at $254.30 while select was up $1.82 at $228.51. The choice/select spread widened to $25.79 from $23.38 with 83 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.90 to $2.10 a bushel over the Mar futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $1.00 over Mar, which settled at $6.53 1/2, up $0.03.
No cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $179.50 per cwt up $0.04. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $183.05, down $0.55.