February US beef exports were 227 million pounds, 7% lower year over year, the USDA said in its monthly Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook report Wednesday.
Monthly exports to China, Mexico, Taiwan and Japan were lower year over year, the USDA said. Exports to Canada were up 3 million pounds from last year, nearly 17%, while exports to South Korea were up 2 million pounds, or 2%.
Total exports were down 4% so far this year at 457.6 million pounds, but year-over year changes in exports to the top markets were mixed.
CHINA SALES DROP
Although year-to-date exports to China were higher than last year through February, sales to China dropped off severely in March as the General Administration of Customs of China allowed the registration of most US beef export facilities to lapse, the USDA report said. Without updates to the registration list, a significant portion of US beef production is ineligible for export to China.
Also, any remaining product that would be eligible for export to China would now be subject to retaliatory tariffs, in addition to the previously effective tariff rate of 12%. These factors, which were assumed to remain in place, were expected to restrict US beef exports to China severely.
In 2024, exports to China represented 16% of total US beef exports, the third-largest export market for US beef, the report said. With exports to China projected to decline substantially this year, some exports that would have otherwise gone to China may be redirected to other markets like Japan and South Korea.
However, with economic headwinds already facing US beef in these markets, there may not be sufficient demand to absorb all of the product, the USDA said. Therefore, the beef export forecast for 2025 was decreased by 135 million pounds.
The second-quarter forecast was lowered 55 million pounds to 675 million and the third and fourth quarters were lowered 45 and 35 million pounds, respectively, the USDA said. The new annual forecast for 2025 was 2.685 billion pounds, which, if realized, would be an 11% decrease year over year.
LARGER IMPORTS PREDICTED
Total US beef imports through February were higher year over year mostly from January’s record totals, though February’s imports also were up 6%, the USDA said.
The main contributors to the increase were imports from Brazil, Australia and countries outside of the top five suppliers.
Because of the strong pace of imports so far, the forecast for first-quarter imports was raised 30 million pounds to 1.360 billion, the USDA said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $205.00 per cwt to $214.53, compared with last week’s range of $208.00 to $213.76 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $324.78 per cwt to $329.95, compared with $328.43 to $333.61.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.90 per cwt at $333.53 while select was down $0.85 at $314.39. The choice/select spread narrowed to $19.14 from $20.19 with 117 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $379.35 per cwt, and 50% beef was $118.34.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.84 1/4, up $0.03.
No live cattle were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $288.03 per cwt, down $0.04. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr contract settlement of $289.95, up $0.57, and May’s $284.40, up $1.87.