H1 Meat Consumption Likely Short Of Record Production

Record-large red meat and poultry production during the first six months of the year likely was not met with record-large per-person disappearance, said the Livestock Marketing Information Center in its weekly Livestock Monitor.

Adding in LMIC projections of imports and exports for June, estimated per-person disappearance of red meat and poultry for the first six months of this year on a retail weight basis was 105.6 pounds, up about three pounds from 2015 and the largest since 2008’s 108.2 pounds, the LMIC said.  It also was the largest since 2008 when disappearance was 108.2 pounds.

It is important to note that people don’t actually eat nearly that much meat because of four major factors, the LMIC said.  First, purchased weight includes bones; second, use by family pets is included; third, there is waste, and finally, meat shrinks during the cooking process.

 

CHICKEN PRODUCTION REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE

 

Weekly chicken production continues to trend above the 2010-2014 average and often runs above last year along with total red meat production, giving consumers and export markets more to work with and pressuring prices.

As usual, broiler production for the first six months led the way.  Pork was next, followed by beef.

Broiler production through the second week of July totaled 27.283 billion pounds, up 529 million, or 1.98%, from 26.574 billion in the same period last year.  Ready-to-cook chicken production was up 2.411 billion, or 9.69%, from the 2010-2014 average of 24.872 billion.

While total red meat and poultry production for the first six months was larger than in any prior year, according to the LMIC, the rate of year-to-year change is the important factor and not the absolute number.  The year-over-year increase for the first half of 2016 was 2.9%, and for the 20-year period from 1989 through 2008, record-large US red meat and poultry production occurred in the first half 17 times.

First-half pork production, at 12.2 billion pounds on a carcass weight basis was record large.  It was up 100 million, or 0.83%, from 12.1 billion last year and was up 1 billion, or 8.93%, from the previous five-year average of 11.2 billion.

Beef production through last week was estimated at 13.485 billion pounds, up 4.1% from 12.954 billion through the same period last year.  At the same time, pork production was down 0.5% at 13.475 billion pounds from 13.544 billion.

 

PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION

 

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report gave 2016 beef consumption at 55.1 pounds, up 0.6 pound from the June estimate of 54.5 pounds.  Consumption next year was estimated at 55.4 pounds.

Pork consumption was estimated at 50.2 pounds, up 0.1 pound from the June estimate.  For 2017, pork consumption was estimated at 50.7 pounds, down 0.4 pound from the June estimate of 51.1.

Total poultry consumption was estimated at 108.2 pounds, compared with 108.1 in the June report.  For next year, the estimate was 109.4 pounds, compared with 109.6 in the June estimate.

 

CASH CATTLE MARKET QUIET

 

Cash cattle markets Wednesday were quiet with light bidding at $185 per cwt in Nebraska’s dressed market.  Asking prices ranged from $188 to $190 dressed and $120 on a live basis.

Cash cattle last week traded at $115 live and mostly $185 dressed with some in Iowa at $184.

The USDA’s choice cutout Wednesday was $0.85 per cwt lower at $199.08, while select was off $0.77 at $190.05.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.03 from $9.11 with 131 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $139.26 per cwt, up $0.65.  This compares with the Aug settlement Wednesday of $142.27, down $0.17.