National hay (alfalfa and other) prices have been on a downward trend since the start of the 2023/2024 crop year (May to April) and now are the lowest in four years, said the Livestock Marketing Information Center in its newsletter to Extension staff called Livestock Monitor.
Over that period, the USDA’s reported national alfalfa hay price went to the most recent month’s available price of $165 a short ton in November from $288 a ton in April 2023. This marks a 43% decline of $123 per ton. The next lowest price was $164 a ton in November 2020.
LOWER EVERY MONTH
During the current crop year, every month has been below the five-year average. The LMIC said it was forecasting the 2024/2025 alfalfa hay price to range from $170 to $180 a ton.
And, other hay prices have been on a downward trend since late 2022, the LMIC said. Prices peaked most recently at $248 a ton in October 2022 and have steadily fallen since that point.
November 2024’s prices were $159 a ton, which was an $89 per ton, or 36% decline in just over two years, the LMIC said. The last time other hay prices were less than $159 a ton was February 2021 when they were $158 per ton.
Since the start of the crop year, other hay prices have been tracking similar to the five-year average, the LMIC said. The LMIC was forecasting the 2024/2025 other hay price to be around $150 a ton.
STATE AND REGIONAL PRICES ALSO LOWER
As national hay prices have trended downward over the last two years, prices regionally and at the state level followed a similar trend, the LMIC said. Moving into 2025, low hay prices are a welcome sign for livestock producers as this will give some relief on the input cost side of things.
The January Crop Production report from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is expected to detail the Dec. 1 hay stocks at the state level, the LMIC said. This could be a key piece of information providing further insight into the available hay supplies moving into 2025, which could influence hay prices.
THE INFLUENCE OF DROUGHT
Drought will be another factor influencing hay prices and production, the LMIC said. The most recent estimate from the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board states that “approximately 46% of alfalfa hay acreage is within an area experiencing drought.”
A market analyst added that weather forecasters indicated a relationship between a dry fall and a dry spring, so more drought could be possible this year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $191.11 per cwt to $197.07, compared with the previous week’s range of $191.00 to $196.58 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $301.97 per cwt to $306.55, compared with $300.56 to $308.10.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $1.76 per cwt at $325.24 while select was up $2.49 at $296.72. The choice/select spread narrowed to $28.52 from $29.25 with 112 loads of fabricated product and 37 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $332.35 per cwt, and 50% beef was $92.21.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.19 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.50 3/4, down $0.08 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $265.76 per cwt, up $3.99. This compares with Friday’s Jan contract settlement of $264.82, down $1.65.