Total beef production through the first week of June was 10.6 billion pounds, down 2.0% from last year, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist in an Extension service letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
That follows a 4.7% reduction in 2023 beef production from record 2022 levels, Peel said. Cattle slaughter in the first 21 weeks of 2024 was down 4.5% from last year, but cattle carcass weights averaged 21.8 pounds higher through the period.
Beef production will be down from last year in 2024 but by less than previously forecast, he said.
STEER SLAUGHTER DOWN
Steer slaughter was down 2.1% in the first 21 weeks of the year compared with one year ago, Peel said. Heifer slaughter was down 1.6%. Total fed slaughter was down 1.9%.
However, steer carcass weights have averaged 920 pounds, up 20.4 pounds this year, and heifer carcasses averaged 843 pounds, 15.9 pounds heavier, he said.
Carcass weights have not shown the typical seasonal decline in the first half of the year resulting in even greater year-over-year discrepancies, Peel said. Weekly data from late May showed steer carcass weights 37 pounds (heifers, 29 pounds) heavier than last year.
Total fed beef production for the 21-week period was 8.92 billion pounds, up 0.2% from one year ago, he said. Increased steer and heifer carcass weights were offsetting decreased slaughter to result in a fractional increase in fed beef production for the year to date with significant increases in recent weeks.
NON-FED PRODUCTION DOWN SHARPLY
By contrast, 2024 non-fed beef production was down sharply, Peel said. Non-fed beef makes up 20% of total beef production on average.
Total cow slaughter was down 14.1% from a year ago through the first 21 weeks of the year, with dairy cow slaughter down 13.4% and beef cow slaughter down 14.8%, he said.
Cow carcass weights averaged 646.8 pounds, up 10 pounds from a year ago, Peel said.
Bull slaughter was down 7.0% year over year, with bull carcass weights up 28.7 pounds over a year ago and averaged 892 pounds, he said.
Total non-fed slaughter through May was down 13.6%, and total non-fed beef production was 1.69 billion pounds, down 12.0% compared with last year.
Fed beef likely will decline in the second half of the year, he said. Fed slaughter could decrease more in late 2024, though carcass weights likely will remain elevated.
Heifer retention also may be starting by the end of the year, Peel said. And beef cow slaughter may drop more sharply in the last part of the year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $190.81 per cwt to $197.29, compared with last week’s range of $186.00 to $198.26 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $295.27 per cwt to $301.88, compared with $291.73 to $303.78.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.54 per cwt at $322.85 while select was off $2.40 at $302.86. The choice/select spread widened to $19.99 from $18.13 with 115 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $367.24 per cwt, and 50% beef was $102.40.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.50 to $1.60 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.20 a bushel, down $0.05 1/2.
No delivery intentions were posted Wednesday for the Jun live cattle futures contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $258.31 per cwt, up $0.41. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $261.77, up $2.72.