Much of the Southern Plains received significant precipitation in April, providing a much-improved pasture, hay and pond water situation.
The change offered cow/calf producers an improved pathway to heifer retention and herd expansion, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
THE IMMEDIATE EFFECT
If heifer retention is accelerating, the most immediate effect will be reduced feeder cattle supplies available for placement in feedlots. Peel said he would expect to see feedlot inventories declining more noticeably in coming months.
With a lag of five or six months, heifer slaughter may decrease more noticeably, he said. The next few months may show the long-awaited evidence of heifer retention.
In Oklahoma, five of nine climate divisions had the first or second wettest period on record from April 4 – May 3, resulting in the second wettest period statewide, Peel said. For the 30 days ending May 3, all of the state, with the exception of the three panhandle counties, received more than 100% to more than 600% of normal precipitation.
Thus, the immediate drought threat has been reduced and has sparked more talk of heifer retention among producers and lenders, he said. The April Cattle on Feed report showed that the number of heifers in feedlots had dropped, and it appears that it may continue dropping in coming months. The next quarterly check of heifers on feed is scheduled for July.
TWO COMPONENTS TO RETENTION
Increased heifer retention in 2025 can have two components, Peel said. One form of heifer retention is impulse breeding of yearling heifers that were not noted as replacement heifers in the Jan. 1 inventory report.
Those heifers would have been counted as part of “other heifers,” he said. Historical data shows that 13% of other heifers typically is bred each year as part of the total bred beef heifer supply the following January.
During the last herd expansion from 2014-2019, this percentage increased to more than 18%, meaning an additional 300,000 to 400,000 head of heifers were diverted from the feeder supply to breeding for the cow herd, Peel said.
Additionally, beef producers may increase retention of heifer calves in 2025, he said. These generally would be available to breed in 2026 and enter the cow herd in 2027.
Fall-born heifers that will be weaned in the next couple of months could be bred in late 2025 and calve in the fall of 2026, Peel said. These factors suggest the January Cattle report could show an increase in beef replacement heifers, consisting of more bred heifers to calve in 2026 and more heifer calves to be bred in 2026.
CTTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $217.68 per cwt to $221.77, compared with last week’s range of $212.00 to $219.77 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $340.22 per cwt to $345.29, compared with $329.37 to $346.08.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $1.10 per cwt at $344.67 while select was up $4.90 at $332.97. The choice/select spread narrowed to $11.70 from $15.50 with 97 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $376.20 per cwt, and 50% beef was $106.67.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.16 to $1.26 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.55 1/2, up $0.01 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $293.78 per cwt, up $0.38. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $295.70, down $0.37.