For those looking for a singular indication that US cattle herd rebuilding has begun, the USDA’s midyear report isn’t giving then any love.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Friday that the US herd of cattle and calves numbered 94.2 million head, down 1.2 million, or 1.26%, from 95.4 million two years earlier, the last time there was a midyear report. It was the lowest July 1 count on record going back to 1973. And, the number placed on feed was the lowest since 2017.
CALF CROP LOWER
The USDA midyear Cattle (Inventory) report also said the year’s calf crop was estimated at 33.1 million head, down 463,000, or 1.38%, from 33.563 million two years earlier.
The report broke down the calf crop to indicate 24.3 million calves, or 73.4% of the estimated total, had been born through June 30. Another 8.8 million, or 26.6% of the total, were expected to be born in the last half of the year.
The breakdown compares with last year when 24.6 million head, or 73.4% of the total, was born in the first half and 8,929,500 were born in the second half.
That was from a total of 38.1 million cows and heifers that had calved, down 300,000, or 0.78%, from 38.4 million two years earlier. Of the total, 28.65 million were beef cows, down 350,000, or 1.21%, from 29.0 million two years ago. Another 9.45 million were dairy cows, up 50,000, or 0.53%, from 9.40 million two years ago.
HEIFER COUNT DOWN
The number of heifers weighing 500 pounds or more was 14.6 million, down 300,000, or 2.01%, from 14.9 million two years earlier. Of this, 3.7 million were designated for beef cow replacement, down 100,000, or 2.63%, from 3.8 million in the 2023 midyear report.
Another 3.5 million head of heifers were designated as dairy herd replacements, unchanged from two years ago.
And, 7.4 million heifers were classed as other heifers, presumably looking at feedlot destinations. This was down 200,000, or 2.63%, from 7.6 million two years ago.
OTHER CATTLE NUMBERS STEADY TO LOWER
Steers weighing 500 pounds or more were reported at 13.8 million head, down 200,000, or 1.43%, from 14.0 million two years earlier.
Another 1.9 million head were bulls weighing 500 pounds or more, unchanged from two years ago.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds totaled 25.8 million head, down 400,000, or 1.53%, from 26.2 million in 2023.
Oklahoma State University Extension Economist Derrell Peel said in a report that April’s cattle-on-feed data showed the largest percentage decrease in heifer placements relative to total feedlot inventories in the past five years. So maybe herd rebuilding has begun.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week was unavailable, compared with last week’s range of $230.88 to $241.92 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $361.69 to $379.55.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.05 per cwt at $367.73 while select was up $1.98 at $346.85. The choice/select spread narrowed to $20.88 from $21.81 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 10 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $418.36 per cwt, and 50% beef was $198.90.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.93 3/4, down $0.05 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $329.93 per cwt, up $1.10. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $333.52, up $2.15.