Higher Kansas Fed Cattle Weights Not Likely Soon 6-14-18 – If Kansas fed cattle followed the national trend in April’s carcass weights, their slaughter weights likely declined counter-seasonally through the month, according to USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service data and survey results from the Kansas State University Extension Service. Each month, the K-State Extension Service surveys representative feedlots across the state and sends the data to the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, Col., to be compiled into graphs that are representative of the whole state’s activities for the previous month. The results are released during the first week of the next month. The latest Kansas survey data showed the final weight of fed steers declined seasonally in April where there is a low in the 2012-2016 average of fed cattle weights. WHAT THE SURVEY SHOWED The survey showed the average fed steer weight from Kansas feed yards in April was 1,356 pounds, down 10, or 0.73%, from March’s 1,366 pounds. The comparisons are shown in this LMIC graph. However, April’s Kansas fed steer live weights were 11 pounds, or 0.82%, above last year’s 1,345 pounds and 7.2 pounds, or 0.53%, above the previous five-year average of 1,348.8 pounds. The data show that Kansas fed steer live weights should climb beginning in May if they are following the average trend. But Kansas fed steer weights did not follow the average last year, and NASS data implies they didn’t this year either. THE NASS DATA Weekly national slaughter data from the USDA’s NASS show a decline in federally inspected steer carcass weights in May, implying that Kansas feedlot closeout weights also declined, counter-seasonally. The data show national weekly slaughter steer dressed weights in May continuing the spring decline. The first week in April, dressed steer weights averaged 872 pounds. From there, weekly average steer dressed weights fell to 846 pounds the third week of May, a decline of 26 pounds, or 2.98%. National fed steer carcass weights rose to 848 pounds the last week of May, so the bottom in kill weights may be in for the year. If it is, it seems to be at least two to three weeks overdue as average fed steer dressed weights tend to bottom in late April, although they didn’t turn upward until early May last year. KANSAS DAYS ON FEED STILL RISING The number of days it took for April’s fed cattle sales to reach market weight continued to rise. The data show that it took an average of 182 days on feed to reach market weight, up two, or 1.11%, from 180 in March. April’s days on feed also were up 16 days, or 9.64%, from April 2917’s 166-day average and up 17.4 days, or 10.6%, from the 2012-2026 average of 164.6 days. CATTLE, BEEF RECAP No fed cattle sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction, versus sales two weeks previous at $110 per cwt. Limited cash trade was reported at $180 per cwt on a dressed basis, down $4 from last week. Cash cattle traded last week at $114 to mostly $115 per cwt on a live basis, up $3.50 to $4 from the previous week. The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was $1.02 per cwt at $223.90, while select was off $1.09 at $202.30. The choice/select spread widened to $21.60 from $21.53 with 107 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market. The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $141.02 per cwt, up $0.07. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug settlement of $145.65, down $0.15. IN OUR OPINION –Managed money and other investors continue to fret about possible tariffs on agricultural exports and keep taking prices lower. Soybeans are being hit especially hard. Pork exports could be hit, too, but technical traders are giving this market life for now. –The US dollar failed to move up in trading Wednesday, even after the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points. This could help exports to remain where they are for now, but traders are concerned about what might happen with the European Central Bank. Some analysts credit Wednesday’s US dollar inaction to the uncertainty about what the ECB might do. –The USDA’s Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports are scheduled for release on June 22. The Cold Storage report could be telling this time. Cattle slaughter has been high amid strong demand, which could keep the inflow of beef into freezers low. If this is what is shown, it means packers have booked beef orders ahead. But if frozen beef stocks rise, it means the beef market, as a whole, is not keep up with slaughter.

Lester Aldrich

If Kansas fed cattle followed the national trend in April’s carcass weights, their slaughter weights likely declined counter-seasonally through the month, according to USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service data and survey results from the Kansas State University Extension Service.

Each month, the K-State Extension Service surveys representative feedlots across the state and sends the data to the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, Col., to be compiled into graphs that are representative of the whole state’s activities for the previous month.  The results are released during the first week of the next month.

The latest Kansas survey data showed the final weight of fed steers declined seasonally in April where there is a low in the 2012-2016 average of fed cattle weights.

 

WHAT THE SURVEY SHOWED

 

The survey showed the average fed steer weight from Kansas feed yards in April was 1,356 pounds, down 10, or 0.73%, from March’s 1,366 pounds.

However, April’s Kansas fed steer live weights were 11 pounds, or 0.82%, above last year’s 1,345 pounds and 7.2 pounds, or 0.53%, above the previous five-year average of 1,348.8 pounds.

The data show that Kansas fed steer live weights should climb beginning in May if they are following the average trend.  But Kansas fed steer weights did not follow the average last year, and NASS data implies they didn’t this year either.

 

THE NASS DATA

 

Weekly national slaughter data from the USDA’s NASS show a decline in federally inspected steer carcass weights in May, implying that Kansas feedlot closeout weights also declined, counter-seasonally.

The data show national weekly slaughter steer dressed weights in May continuing the spring decline.  The first week in April, dressed steer weights averaged 872 pounds.

From there, weekly average steer dressed weights fell to 846 pounds the third week of May, a decline of 26 pounds, or 2.98%.

National fed steer carcass weights rose to 848 pounds the last week of May, so the bottom in kill weights may be in for the year.  If it is, it seems to be at least two to three weeks overdue as average fed steer dressed weights tend to bottom in late April, although they didn’t turn upward until early May last year.

 

KANSAS DAYS ON FEED STILL RISING

 

The number of days it took for April’s fed cattle sales to reach market weight continued to rise.  The data show that it took an average of 182 days on feed to reach market weight, up two, or 1.11%, from 180 in March.

April’s days on feed also were up 16 days, or 9.64%, from April 2917’s 166-day average and up 17.4 days, or 10.6%, from the 2012-2026 average of 164.6 days.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

No fed cattle sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction, versus sales two weeks previous at $110 per cwt.

Limited cash trade was reported at $180 per cwt on a dressed basis, down $4 from last week.

Cash cattle traded last week at $114 to mostly $115 per cwt on a live basis, up $3.50 to $4 from the previous week.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was $1.02 per cwt at $223.90, while select was off $1.09 at $202.30.  The choice/select spread widened to $21.60 from $21.53 with 107 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.

The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $141.02 per cwt, up $0.07.  This compares with Wednesday’s Aug settlement of $145.65, down $0.15.