Although there may be increases from quarter to quarter, the US hog herd keeps declining slowly when compared with last year, according to the USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Thursday.
ALL HOGS DOWN FROM 2021
The US inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sep. 1 was 73.800 million head, up 1.276 million, or 1.76%, from 72.524 million on June 1 but down 1.067 million, or 1.43%, from 74.867 million a year ago.
Of that, 6.152 million were kept for breeding, down 16,000, or 0.26%, from 6.168 million last quarter and down 38,000, or 0.61%, from 6.190 million last year.
Another 67.648 million were classed as market hogs, up 1.292 million, or 1.95%, from 66.356 million on June 1 but down 1.029 million, or 1.50%, from 68.677 million on Sep.1, 2021.
MARKET HOGS DOWN FROM 2021
Market hogs and pigs weighing less than 50 pounds on Sep. 1 totaled 21.343 million head, up 260,000, or 1.23%, from 21.083 million on June 1 but down 347,000, or 1.60%, from 21.690 million on Sep. 1, 2021.
Those weighing 50 to 119 pounds came to 19.887 million head, up 1.166 million, or 6.23%, from 18.721 million last quarter but down 324,000, or 1.60%, from 20.211 million last year.
Market hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds totaled 14.073 million head, up 246,000, or 1.78%, from 13.827 million in the last report but down 173,000, or 1.21%, from 14.246 million reported a year ago.
Hogs weighing 180 pounds or more on Sep. 1 totaled 12.345 million head, down 380,000, or 2.99%, from 12.725 million in the previous quarter and down 184,000, or 1.47%, from 12.529 million a year ago.
PIG CROP DECLINES
The number of sows that were farrowed in the June-August period totaled 3.018 million head, down 32,000, or 1.05%, from 3.050 million last year. This produced a pig crop of 33.581 million head, down 363,000, or 1.07%, from 33.944 million a year ago.
In the September-November quarter, producers said they intended to farrow 2.973 million sows, down 76,000, or 2.49%, from 3.049 million a year ago. If they maintain the June-August 11.13 pigs average litter size, this will produce a pig crop of about 33.089 million, which would be down 1.034 million, or 3.03%, from last year’s 34.123 million for the period.
REACTION
A market analyst said futures traders may not focus very hard on the report this morning. Instead, they will continue to look at domestic and export demand for pork along with global supplies.
The report indicates hog slaughter will be more than the numbers seen in the first half of the year, the analyst said. This said, the market could be up early, especially after the steep declines of the last 10 days.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $142.00 to $147.86 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $141.00 to $145.00 FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $222.00 to $227.22 per cwt, versus $221.34 to $227.23.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.47 per cwt at $246.08 while select was up $0.57 at $219.78. The choice/select spread narrowed to $26.30 from $28.34 with 119 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.10 to $2.45 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.00 over Dec, which settled at $6.69 1/2, down $0.01.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $175.94 per cwt down $1.52. This compares with Thursday’s Sep contract settlement of $175.97, up $0.60, and Oct’s $177.32, up $2.32.