Productivity gains helped to offset cuts to farrowings for the US hog industry in the last quarter and could help producers in coming days, Farmdocdaily said in an article last week.
The USDA’s June Hogs and Pigs report placed the June 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.5 million head, up 0.22% from last quarter and 1.27% more than a year ago, close to pre-report expectations of 1.2% (ranging 0.4% to 1.7%) higher.
HOG INVENTORIES UP
Likewise, market hog inventories were up 0.25% from last quarter and 1.68% more than a year ago, again close to pre-report expectations of 1.5% (ranging 0.7% to 2%) higher, Farmdocdaily said. Meanwhile the breeding herd was down 0.13% from last quarter and down 3.19% from last year, just below the bottom end of the range of pre-report expectations of 1.5% to 3.0% (2.3% on average) lower.
In contrast, the March-through-May pig crop, at 1.82% higher than last year, came in a bit above the upper end of the range of pre-report expectations of 0.90% to 1.60% (1.3% on average) higher, Farmdocdaily said.
All categories of market hog inventories were up compared with a year ago, with the under-50 pound and 50-to-119-pound classes up 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively, while the 120-to-179-pound class and those over 180 pounds were up 2.0% and 2.5%, respectively, Farm-doc-daily said. Overall, the number of hogs weighing less than 180 pounds was about 1.5% larger than a year ago, which will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from July through November.
PRODUCTION MORE EFFICIENT
The year over year increase in lighter-weight hogs partly resulted from a continued growth in pigs per litter, here 1.76% higher than a year ago, outpacing reductions to farrowings at just 0.10% lower.
Summer and fall farrowing intentions were down 2.53% and 0.57% from actuals last year, Farmdocdaily said. Historically, this would imply smaller slaughter numbers in subsequent periods.
According to the USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report, pork stocks at the end of May were down 3% from the previous month and 9% from a year ago.
The USDA forecast US per-capita pork consumption at 50.6 pounds in 2024, falling to 50.3 pounds in 2025, reflecting continued concerns for consumer purchasing power in the face of inflation, the availability of pork and strong export demand, Farmdocdaily said.
The US exported 656 million pounds of pork in April, or about 13% more than in April of 2023, 38% of which went to Mexico—a 30% year-over-year increase—reflecting low bone-in ham prices and the strength of the peso, Farmdocdaily said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $189.77 per cwt to $200.07, compared with the previous week’s range of $190.00 to $198.30 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $298.67 per cwt to $309.14, compared with $295.27 to $308.27.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.59 per cwt at $330.43 while select was up $0.68 at $305.06. The choice/select spread narrowed to $25.37 from $25.46 with 64 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $371.51 per cwt, and 50% beef was $92.73.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.55 to $1.65 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.10 1/2 a bushel, up $0.05.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $255.08 per cwt, down $0.61. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $261.47, down $1.90.