Thursday’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service could be considered somewhat unfriendly to lean hog futures on Friday, a market analyst said.
The mixed nature of the trends in hog inventory were the reason for the “unfriendly” call versus a more bullish or bearish outlook. The US inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sep. 1 was down about 1% from the June 1 inventory but up about 1% from a year earlier.
Neither figure was staggering, the analyst said, so traders likely will see it as a continuation in an uneven climb toward ever larger US hog inventories, he said.
MARKET HOG NUMBERS MIXED
The Sep. 1 total of all hogs and pigs in the US was 79.099 million head, down 535,000, or 0.67%, from 79.634 million on June 1 but up 484,000, or 0.61%, from 79.583 million a year earlier.
The total of market hogs weighing 180 pounds or more on Sep. 1 was 14.169 million head, down 518,000, or 3.53%, from 14.687 million on June 1 but up 1.270 million, or 9.85%, from 12.899 million a year earlier.
Hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds on Sep. 1 totaled 15.547 million, down from 16.090 million in the previous quarter but up from 14.654 million a year earlier.
Market hogs weighing 50 to 119 pounds totaled 20.490 million head, up 120,000, or 0.59%, from 20.370 million in the June report but down 734,000, or 3.46%, from 21.224 million a year earlier.
Pigs destined for slaughter weighing less than 50 pounds totaled 22.559 million head, up 399,000, or 1.80%, from 22.160 million in the previous report but down 817,000, or 3.50%, from 23.376 million a year ago.
BREEDING HERD CHANGES ALSO MIXED
Of the total herd, the number of hogs that were being kept for breeding on Sep. 1 came to 6.333 million head, up 7,000, or 0.11%, from 6.326 million in the previous report but down 98,000, or 1.52%, from 6.431 million a year earlier.
A total of 3.180 million sows farrowed in the latest quarter, up 8,000, or 0.25%, from 3.172 million in the previous quarter but down 95,000, or 2.90%, from 3.275 million in the 2019 quarter.
Farmers said they intended to farrow 3.118 million sows in the September-through-November quarter, down 62,000, or 1.95%, from 3.180 million in the latest quarter and down 147,000, or 4.50%, from 3.265 million in the year-earlier quarter.
The June-through-August pig crop totaled 35.115 million head, up 182,000, or 0.52%, from the March-through-May total of 34.933 million but 1.254 million, or 3.45%, fewer than 36.369 million in the year-earlier quarter.
The number of pigs per litter over the quarter averaged, 11.04 and was up 0.03, or 0.27%, from the March-through-May number of 11.01 head. However, it was down 0.07 head, or 0.63%, from 11.11 head a year ago.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading this week was reported at $104 to $105 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was seen at $164 per cwt, up $1 to $2.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.61 per cwt at $217.48, while select was up $0.14 at $207.74. The choice/select spread widened to $9.74 from $8.27 with 94 loads of fabricated product and 30 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was at $142.59 per cwt, up $0.31. This compares with Thursday’s Sep contract settlement of $142.45 per cwt, up $0.45 and Oct’s settlement of $142.27, up $0.75.