Through the first half of the year, year-to-date cattle slaughter was 8.7% lower than last year, and placements were higher this year compared to last year, said Charley Martinez, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee in a Livestock Marketing Information Center letter called In The Cattle Markets.
Those two stats provide information about current and future beef production, Martinez said.
DRESSED WEIGHT INSIGHT
Another insightful/helpful stat is dressed weight, he said. As supplies became smaller in the last two years, dressed weights increased to help offset the lower slaughter volumes.
Weights increased so much that in March the US hit a record average dressed weight of 902 pounds across all cattle, Martinez said. But, entering the dog days of summer, traders can expect annual lows and then an increase the rest of the year, but how high will dressed weights go?
A 2025 increased weight pattern in dressed cattle weights remains obvious in 2026, but weights are running well above the 2020–2024 average as well, he said. The 2020-2024 five-year average declined from about 833 pounds in January to a seasonal low of about 812 pounds in June, before recovering to around 838 to 839 pounds in November and December.
In contrast, 2025 started near 877 pounds in January, slipped to a low of about 865 pounds in June and then increased steadily through the second half of the year to roughly 895 pounds in December, Martinez said. The 2026 series began at about 896 pounds in January, reached an early peak near 902 pounds in March and remained near 899 pounds through May.
Thus, 2026 weights are running about 20 to 30 pounds heavier than 2025 and roughly 65 to 85 pounds above the 2020–2024 average during the same months, he said. If the 2026 vs 2025 difference holds, the market could see 915 to 925 average dressed weights at the end of the year.
A MARKET PERSPECTIVE
From a market perspective, those exceptionally heavy carcass weights continue to partially offset the effects of historically tight cattle supplies, Martinez said. With the US cattle inventory constrained, feeders appear to be adding weight to available marketings, reflecting strong feeding margins, improved feeding performance and incentives to maximize beef output per head.
The weights also highlight the continued economic value of efficient weight gain, although sustained record-heavy carcasses could pressure grading performance, feeding costs and optimal market timing if carcass discounts emerge, he said.
Overall, the 2026 data indicate that carcass weights remain a key mechanism through which the industry is adapting to the current low-inventory cattle cycle.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $231.63 per cwt to $237.92, compared with last week’s range of $238.00 to $252.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $367.24 per cwt to $377.75, compared with $373.89 to $388.86.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $2.97 per cwt at $365.86 while select was down $1.64 at $343.52. The choice/select spread widened to $22.34, from $17.73 with 90 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the daily weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $456.58 per cwt, and 50% beef was $162.63.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.18 to $1.33 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.58 3/4 a bushel, up $0.07.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $348.47 per cwt, up $1.10. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $342.75 per cwt, up $4.50.