The US beef cow herd could be higher in the semi-annual report in January, in spite of increased cow and heifer slaughter this year, said the Livestock Marketing Information Center in a letter to Extension agents.
The LMIC letter said its current estimate for the Jan. 1 beef cow herd count was somewhere north of 31.8 million head, reflecting very modest growth in the range of 100.2% to 100.4% of a year ago.
HEIFER SLAUGHTER UP
Heifer and beef cow slaughter rates have surged this year, the LMIC said. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service placed total heifer slaughter under federal inspection to be up 7.3% from last year through October 2018.
Weekly heifer slaughter began to diverge from the 2917 and previous five-year average rates in April. It has remained above average since then and has dipped below the 2017 rate only on rare occasions.
In the latest reported week, heifer slaughter was pegged at 188,268 head, up 7,079, or 3.91%, from 181,189 in the same week a year earlier and up 28,028, or 17.5%, from 160,240 head in the 2012-2016 average.
COW HERD GROWING
The number of beef cows that have calved has grown over the last four years (of herd expansion), adding 2.6 million head since 2014, the LMIC said.
“This incredible growth pattern has led to larger calf crops, and the economics has supported retaining a large number of heifers in recent years to continue adding to that beef cow number,” the letter said.
Over the last 30 years, the annual proportion of federally inspected slaughter devoted to beef cows and heifers has been about 40%, the LMIC said. In recent years, as the cow herd has gained momentum, the proportion fell to about 35%.
This year, the proportion of heifers and cows in the total slaughter has risen back to around 38%, suggesting a return to more normal cull rates this year and a slowdown in beef cow herd growth.
In years of herd contraction, the proportion of cows in the overall slaughter number ruses to more than 40% with rates around 42% and 43% not uncommon.
Dairy cow slaughter this year also has been up from last year and the previous five-year average, according to NASS data. This may have helped to moderate the rate of increase in beef cow slaughter, a market analyst said. More dairy cows providing more very lean beef for grinding could have mitigated prices for all cows, including beef cows, and weighed on cull rates.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
No fed cattle traded Wednesday on the Fed Cattle Exchange Video Auction. Last week, 97 head sold last Wednesday at an average price of $119 per cwt, up $1.17 from a week earlier.
Cash cattle traded last week at $118 to mostly $119 per cwt, steady with the previous week. Dressed-basis trade was at $187 to mostly $188 per cwt, steady to up $1.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.98 per cwt at $211.70, while select was up $0.12 at $204.85. The choice/select spread narrowed to $6.85 from $7.95 with 99 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
No delivery notices were served for Dec live cattle.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $145.61 per cwt, up $0.06. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan settlement of $146.20, unchanged.