Consumer protein demand often is perceived as a mysterious something that can’t quite be divined. Kind of like trying to see the future but not quite.
But what do the numbers say about what consumers are buying at what price points at any given time? True, these things swim around and move, but a snapshot of where they are in relation to each other at one point in time can be telling.
To that end, the Kansas State University Department of Economics has published a Meat Demand Monitor. This monitor “tracks US consumer preferences, views and demand for meat with separate analysis for retail and food service channels.” The MDM is a monthly online survey with a sample of over 2,000 respondents reflecting the national population.”
The monitor compares the retail Willingness To Pay in dollars per pound of various proteins in the grocery store and at foodservice along with their respective market share in percent.
AT RETAIL, BEEF IS KING
At retail, beef reigned as king in price but not in market share, the survey showed. Shoppers on Dec. 25 were willing to pay an average of $18.51 a pound for ribeye steak, compared with $17.56 a pound a month earlier. In both cases, though, ribeye steak commanded just 8% of the protein market share in the grocery store.
Ground beef on Dec. 25 held 28% of protein market share with a WTP of $10.23 a pound. This was up from November when consumers were willing to pay $8.59 a pound for ground beef, taking it to 24% of retail protein market share.
Consumers in December were willing to pay $8.08 a pound for pork chops for 13% of protein market share, up from %6.57 a pound in November at 11% of protein market share.
The WTP price for bacon in December was $6.81 a pound, while in November it was $5.84. In both cases, bacon held 8% of protein market share.
Consumers were willing to pay $9.61 a pound for chicken breast in December for a market share of 27% and $8.65 a pound in November for a market share of 29%.
Some other protein sources fell behind in market share, but those who bought them seem loyal. Plant-based patties had a WTP rating in December of $8.19 a pound for only 2% of the market share, compared with November’s $8.05 for the same 2% of market share.
Shrimp had a WTP level in December of $9.93 a pound versus $9.45 in November for the same 4% market share.
And beans and rise commanded a price of $3.57 a pound in December for a 6% market share compared with $2.87 in November for a 7% market share.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $231.21 per cwt to $235.55, compared with last week’s range of $228.00 to $236.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $362.42 per cwt to $366.74, compared with $359.10 to $363.90.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $2.24 per cwt at $360.77 while select was up $2.06 at $359.71. The choice/select spread widened to $1.06 from $0.88 with 125 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $405.21 per cwt, and 50% beef was $155.21.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.20 1/4, down $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $369.42 per cwt, down $0.27. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $368.42, up $3.67.