Monthly Kansas feedlot closeouts, or sales to packers, now appear to be following the five-year trend after more than a year of gyrations initiated by the COVID pandemic.
Closeouts increased from the previous month in May and June at rates that reflect the 2015-2019 average, according to data from a monthly survey of select Kansas feedlots by the Kansas State University Extension Service and compiled and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. The result is a comparison of the activities of an “average” Kansas feedlot for the month.
Last year’s monthly closeouts began the year in general agreement with average movements but dived in April as packing plants closed or restricted activities because of a high rate of COVID infections among employees. After recovering in April, monthly closeout activity barely resembled “normal” monthly activity.
Even this year, Kansas feedlot closeouts nosedived in April in a counter-seasonal move but have since followed the 2015-2019 trend, albeit at a lower rate.
JUNE CLOSEOUTS DOWN FROM 2020
June Kansas feedlot closeouts averaged 4,128 head in June, up 616, or 17.5%, from 3,512 in May but down 195, or 4.51%, from 4,323 in the same month a year ago and down 1,096, or 21.0%, from the previous five-year average of 5,224.
If monthly feedlot closeouts follow the 2015-2019 average trend, they will show a decline in July followed by an increase in August. A drop in September to a seasonal low that will be followed by a barely perceptible increase in October and more robust jumps in November and December, which will be the annual high.
FINAL WEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE TREND
But as wild as the monthly closeout trend has been, final weights remain more stable and above their 2015-2019 trend. Last year, they held the five-year trend more loosely than this year has been but always above trend.
The average exit weight from the average Kansas feed yard in June came to 1,438 pounds, up 25, or 1.77%, from 1,413 in May, up 13, or 0.91%, from 1,425 pounds in June 2020 and up 63.6 pounds, or 4.63%, from the previous five-year average of 1,374.4 pounds.
Should exit weights continue to follow trend, they will rise steadily into the November high before dipping in December.
DAYS ON FEED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
The number of days the cattle that were sold in June spent munching Kansas feed, was well above th3e 2015-2019 average, which is similar to last year.
Days on feed for June marketings was 191 head, down 15, or 7.28%, from 206 in May and down 10, or 4.98%, from 201 in June 2020 but up 19, or 11.0%, from the 172-day average.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle traded last week at $119 to $123 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trade was at $195 to $196, steady to down $1.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.54 per cwt at $281.00, while select was up $4.19 at $263.38. The choice/select spread narrowed to $17.62 from $19.27 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 46 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Friday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.86 to $1.91 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.70 over Sep, which settled at $5.58 3/4 a bushel, up $0.11 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $155.58 per cwt up $1.54. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $158.25 per cwt, up $0.07.