The growing La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific is forecast to keep the southern US warmer and drier than normal through the winter, expanding dry and droughty conditions across the western half of the country.
The weekly US Drought Monitor from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday showed that most of the western half of the contiguous 48 states were rated as abnormally dry to having exceptional drought. The worst conditions were in Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, closely followed by northern California, most of Oregon and parts of Washington state. A band of abnormally dry conditions dotted the Midwest into the New England states.
The Drought Monitor this week will reflect the precipitation from last week’s storm.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist, said in a letter to Extension agents called Cow/Calf Corner that seasonal forecasts called for drought conditions to persist in current drought areas and expand eastward across the Central and Southern Plains. Sporadic intrusions of wet weather could occur like the arctic storm last weekend.
Another weather forecaster once simplified why a La Nina brings dryness to the southern US. He said the lower sea temperatures make for less evaporation, and, thus, less rain to bring in with the jet stream.
STORM WAS SEVERE
Last week’s storm brought snow to the Panhandle to significant ice accumulations in central Oklahoma with widespread cold rain and intermittent sleet, Peel said. Power still is out for many thousands of customers.
Cattle were exposed to cold, wet conditions for several days, he said. Cold stress reduces productivity and increases health problems.
Challenges can be particularly acute for weanling calves and for stocker cattle, Peel said. Cattle with persistent wet hair coats have significantly increased maintenance requirements and often require more and better-quality feed.
The storm also affected feedlot cattle and may affect feedlot performance in coming weeks, he said. Several auctions closed last week, pressuring cattle prices.
However, the precipitation may revive chances for wheat pasture and winter grazing, Peel said. The latest crop progress report showed that 86% of Oklahoma wheat was planted, ahead of the five-year average of 82%. Emergence was reported at 74%, well above the five-year average of 66%.
The wheat crop generally is poised to respond quickly to the timely precipitation, he said. Stocker demand may then pick back up.
Seasonally large runs of feeder cattle are expected in coming weeks, and numerous value-added preconditioned calf sales are scheduled in the next five weeks.
Improved stocker prospects combined with a sharp recovery in feeder futures markets last week may mean that the seasonal low in calf and stocker prices is past, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was done this week at $106.75 to $107.25 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 to $3.75 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was done at $160 to $164 per cwt, steady to up $2.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.75 per cwt at $210.19, while select was up $1.60 at $197.05. The choice/select spread narrowed to $13.14 from $13.99 with 128 loads of fabricated product and 39 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.25 per bushel over the Dec CME futures contract, which settled at $4.04 1/4 a bushel, up $0.04 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $138.57 per cwt, up $0.54. This compares with Wednesday’s Nov contract settlement of $137.70 per cwt, up $1.57.