After peaking last year at 224.35 pounds, US per capita red meat and poultry consumption on a retail weight basis is expected to decline through 2025.
That prediction was made by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver this week.
The largest and most pronounced decline will be in beef, the LMIC said. Pork was expected to show a decline through next year followed by a gain in 2025. Chicken could have an increase in per capita consumption next year but a decline in 2025, and turkey consumption could rise in each of the next two years.
BEEF CONSUMPTION DECLINE FORECAST
LMIC predicted the most consistent consumption decline in beef, foreseeing a decline for the next two years straight.
This year’s per capita beef consumption was expected to be 57.72 pounds, down 1.15 pounds, or 1.95%, from the near-term peak of 58.87 pounds last year, the LMIC said. Next year, per capita consumption was expected to drop to 55.76 pounds for year-over-year decline of 1.96 pounds, or 3.40%.
In 2025, per capita beef consumption was forecast at 53.80 pounds, down 1.96, or 3.52%, from 2024. This makes the total decline from the near-term peak in 2022 of 58.87 pounds be 5.07 pounds, or 8.61%.
The LMIC gave no reasons for its consumption predictions, but market analysts saw it being linked to declining beef production. With less beef available, consumers will eat less.
Many expect cow/calf producers to begin rebuilding their herds soon, if they haven’t started already, after severe drought wreaked havoc with pasture lands, forcing many to sell part of their herd.
Keeping heifers and cows off the slaughter trail will thin the available fed cattle population over at least the next two years after rebuilding has begun.
PORK CONSUMPTION FORECAST MIXED
After peaking in 2019 at 52.36 pounds, per capita pork consumption has declined in every year since. The LMIC expected another annual decline next year followed by a bump up in 2025.
This year’s per capita pork consumption was expected to be 49.12 pounds, down 1.75, or 3.44%, from 50.87 pounds last year. And, 2024 pork consumption was seen at 48.94 pounds, down 0.18 pound, or 0.37%, from this year.
For 2025, the LMIC expected per capita pork consumption to rise to 49.41 pounds, a gain of 0.47 pound, or 0.96%.
2024 PEAK IN CHICKEN CONSUMPTION SEEN
Chicken consumption this year was expected to be 100.49 pounds, up 0.31, or 0.31%, from 2022’s 100.18 pounds, while 2024 consumption was expected to total 103.91 pounds, followed by 2025’s 102.55 pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $179.00 per cwt to $185.93, compared with last week’s range of $178.75 to $189.46 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $280.56 per cwt to $290.72, compared with $283.80 to $293.58.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.32 per cwt at $313.79 while select was off $0.28 at $289.25. The choice/select spread narrowed to $24.54 from $25.58 with 82 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.60 to $1.80 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.61 a bushel, down $0.00 3/4.
No contracts were tendered for delivery Thursday against the Aug cattle contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $248.95 per cwt, up $0.03. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $249.10 per cwt, down $0.95, and Sep’s $253.27, up $0.65.