Declining beef and pork production may offset increased broiler production and lead to a decrease in total 2022 meat output, said Oklahoma State University Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel, in a letter to Extension agents called Cow-Calf Corner.
The latest forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center suggested red meat and poultry production will total 106.25 billion pounds, down slightly from last year, Peel said. This would be the first decrease since 2014.
Total 2022 per capita meat consumption was forecast at 222.4 pounds, down from 224.2 pounds last year, he said. Pork, broiler and beef production represent 94% of total US meat production, Peel said.
PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
Pork production was forecast to decrease to 27.19 billion pounds in 2022, down 1.8% year over year, Peel said. The March Hogs and Pigs report showed market and breeding hog inventories were down from last year.
Per capita 2022 pork consumption was projected to be 50.3 pounds, down from 51.0 pounds from last year, he said. Pork exports were expected to decrease on weaker shipments to China, offsetting some of the production decline and muting the decrease in pork consumption.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Broiler chicken production was forecast to increase 2.3% in 2022 to a record 45.44 billion pounds, Peel said. Per capita broiler consumption was projected to be 97.8 pounds this year, up from 96.4 pounds in 2021.
HPAI could result in some reduction in broiler production, but export bans could result in more broiler meat being directed to the domestic market, increasing domestic consumption.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
Beef production in 2022 was forecast to decrease 2.2% to 27.39 billion pounds, down from the record level of 28.01 billion last year, he said. Beef consumption was projected to be 57.2 pounds, down from 58.8 pounds last year.
Declining beef cattle inventories will result in reduced cattle slaughter and declining beef production this year, Peel said. Beef exports were expected to decrease from 2021’s record.
FEED COSTS HURT
High feed prices will hurt all livestock industries and may moderate meat production going forward, he said. Feed costs will push higher in coming months.
Beef will be hit harder by drought and reduced pasture and hay production, Peel said. Drought may affect the timing of beef production with liquidation potentially increasing beef production temporarily but leading to a larger supply decline later.
Retail prices are high for all meats, he said. Reported retail prices in February were up 14% to nearly 16% year over year. Meat prices were not expected to continue rising but may stabilize near current levels.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $138.00 to $141.00 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $138.00 to $140.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $217.13 to $220.09 per cwt, versus $216.58 to $221.36.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.49 per cwt at $271.04, while select was down $1.85 at $261.05. The choice/select spread widened to $9.99 from $8.63 with 124 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.40 to $1.55 a bushel over the May futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.10 over May, which settled at $7.56 1/2 a bushel, down $0.03 1/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $155.54 per cwt down $0.22. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr contract settlement $157.10, up $0.97.