Cattle slaughter through the end of February was lower than last year, which was not a surprise given the tighter inventories, said Will Secor, Extension livestock economist at the University of Georgia, in a letter for the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
However, two developments have emerged, Secor said. First, the distribution of the cattle being processed is shifting, and second, beef production is a bit higher than last year despite the smaller slaughter figure.
SLAUGHTER DOWN
Through March 8, the USDA estimated that 5.75 million head of cattle were slaughtered, he said. This was about 3% less than the same time last year.
Steers have increased the share of slaughter to around 49.5% of the total, an increase of about two percentage points from 2024, Secor said. Steer slaughter was about the same as last year at 2.28 million head, with the cow slaughter share dropping about two percentage points to 17.6% of total cattle slaughtered.
Cow slaughter has plummeted in 2025, he said. Cumulative slaughter figures through Feb. 22 suggested all cow slaughter fell 15% year-over-year.
Beef cow slaughter declined further to 22% below cumulative slaughter totals through the same time last year, Secor said. At that rate, about 9% of the beef cow inventory may be slaughtered in 2025.
Heifer slaughter also fell slightly in early 2025, he said. The USDA estimated heifer slaughter so far was around 1.46 million head, about 1.7% less than last year’s estimate of 1.49 million. Notably, this decline was outpaced by the decline in cow slaughter.
BEEF PRODUCTION UP
In contrast to those declines, beef production increased slightly in 2025, Secor said. Through the first week of March, about 5.02 billion pounds of beef were produced, compared with around 4.96 billion in the same time last year, representing a 1.3% increase.
The beef production increase is from larger cattle carcasses, he said. USDA data suggest cattle dressed weights averaged 876 pounds in early March, 4% higher than last year.
Dressed weights then averaged 3% to 5% heavier than last year, Secor said, continuing last year’s increase.
PULLING IT TOGETHER
Combined, these slaughter and beef production trends appear to be a continuation of last year’s trends, he said, which is not entirely surprising given the feed cost and inventory situation.
In the months ahead, beef cow slaughter will need to be watched for any signs of change, Secor said. This is one leading indicator for cattle herd re-building.
Additionally, should higher dressed weights continue, the USDA may need to revise beef production estimates upward this year, he said. This (or other revisions) may have an effect on cattle markets this year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $210.35 per cwt to $210.95, compared with last week’s range of $202.49 to $214.41 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $333.65 per cwt to $334.79, compared with $319.17 to $337.40.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.44 per cwt at $335.26 while select was up $1.33 at $320.01. The choice/select spread widened to $15.25 from $14.14 with 93 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $382.70 per cwt, and 50% beef was $125.46.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.57 1/4, up $0.04.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $291.50 per cwt, up $4.74. This compares with Monday’s Apr contract settlement of $286.45, down $0.22.