Lower stocks of pork in cold storage as of Oct. 31 overran increases in frozen beef inventories to take total red meat supplies lower, said the monthly Cold Storage report from the USDA’S National Agricultural Statistics Service Friday.
At the same time, total pounds of poultry in cold storage were up from a year ago. Growth in frozen chicken supplies from a month earlier and a year earlier while seasonal declines in turkey stocks were not enough to overcome the increase in chicken inventories.
BEEF STOCKS RISE
Total pounds of beef in cold storage held the 2018 trend of being above year-earlier stocks at the end of October.
Total pounds of beef in freezers, at 515.369 million pounds, were up 8.203 million, or 1.62%, from 507.166 million the previous month and up 8.328 million, or 1.64% from 507.041 million last year.
The record October total beef supplies in cold storage was 533.068 million pounds, which happened in 2016.
Market analysts hold that comparisons with a month earlier are less important than those with a year earlier since seasonal shifts can alter month-to-month comparisons. At the same time, seasonal swings in supply or demand happen every year, making the year-to-year comparisons more relevant.
Historical data show that beef stocks tend to rise in October and keep rising through December. Last year, frozen beef stocks dropped sharply in November and were followed by only a modest rise in December.
Total pounds of boneless beef in cold storage rose to 467.976 million pounds, up 9.072 million, or 1.98%, from 458.904 million a month earlier and up 5.883 million, or 1.27%, from 462.093 million a year earlier.
Total pounds of beef cuts on ice were listed at 47.393 million, down 869,000, or 1.80%, from 48.262 million a month earlier but up 2.445 million, or 5.44%, from 44.948 million a year earlier.
PORK SUPPLIES DOWN
Frozen pork supplies on Oct. 31 amounted to 570.554 million pounds, down 18.848 million, or 3.20%, from 589.402 million at the end of September and down 27.820 million, or 4.65%, from 598.374 million on Oct. 31, 2017.
The record for frozen pork supplies was 603.502 million pounds, reported for Oct. 31, 2012.
The LMIC graph shows supplies are following closely the 2017 trend and that of the 2012-2016 average. Following seasonal trends, total pork supplies should decline through December.
Total hams in cold storage were reported at 176.107 million pounds, down 38.521 million, or 17.9%, from 214.628 million a month earlier and down 19.220 million, or 9.84%, from 195.327 million a year earlier.
Total pounds of pork bellies on ice were listed at 26.682 million, down 3.671 million, or 12.1%, from 30.353 million a month earlier and down 5.586 million, or 17.3%, from 32.268 million a year earlier.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle traded last week early at $114 per cwt on a live basis, steady with the previous week, and at $180 on a dressed basis, up $2 to $5. However, the bulk of last week’s action took place Wednesday and Friday at $116 to $117 per cwt live, up $2 to $3, and at $180 dressed.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.16 per cwt at $213.85, while select was up $0.25 at $198.51. The choice/select spread narrowed to $15.34 from $15.43 with 43 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Thursday, was $148.27 per cwt, up $0.66. This compares with Friday’s Jan settlement of $149.37, up $0.75.