US hay inventories on May 1 were up 6.677 million short tons, up 47% from a year ago, based on the USDA’s Crop Production report on Friday.
The report said stocks totaled 21.010 million tons, compared with 14.333 million on May 1,2023. This follows three straight years of May 1 inventory declines, said Hay and Forage Grower
On Dec. 1, hay stocks totaled 76.721 million short tons, up from 71.761 million a year earlier, a gain of 4.96 million tons, or 6.91%.
The May 1 hay stocks estimate was the highest reported since 2017 when the nation’s hay inventory totaled 24.39 million tons, Hay and Forage Grower said.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGES
Some of the larger hay-producing states were singled out by Hay and Forage Grower for significant changes from May 1, 2023. Notable gains were Colorado, up 371%; Oklahoma, up 350%; New Mexico, up 267%; Montana, up 253%; Wyoming, up 171%; Florida, up 167%, and Arizona, up 150%.
There were some declines, as well. New York was down 35%, California was down 31%, Wisconsin was down 30%, Minnesota was down 30% and Pennsylvania was down 20%, Hay and Forage Grower pointed out.
Hay disappearance from Dec. 1 to May 1 was about 55.7 million short tons, Hay and Forage Grower said. This was about 1.7 million tons lower than a year earlier and set a new low for hay disappearance during this timeframe.
LOOKING AHEAD
Weather and water availability will dictate where hay production and prices head this year and through the winter. Hay and Forage Grower said a La Nina weather pattern was expected to return this year, although probably later in the growing season.
Hay prices will be pressured by the increased May 1 stocks and reductions in commodity prices that make competitive feeds cheaper, Hay and Forage Grower said. Beef prices were expected to remain strong, but milk prices are down, and beef and dairy herds are down from previous cycle highs and could remain depressed in the short term, reducing hay demand.
Input prices for hay growers are starting to subside after two years of gains, Hay and Forage Grower said. Many fertilizer products are down significantly from previous highs.
First-quarter hay exports started to rebound from a “woeful” 2023, Hay and Forage Grower said. As a result, competition for western hay may start to rise, especially for higher quality hay.
As a result, it’s reasonable to expect 2024 hay prices to remain about steady, Hay and Forage Grower said. Price declines have begun to moderate, but there is no price push on the horizon either.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $184.00 per cwt to $185.67, compared with last week’s range of $184.00 to $188.84 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $290.49 per cwt to $294.62, compared with $286.69 to $295.41.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $5.44 per cwt at $304.39 while select was up $6.64 at $293.82. The choice/select spread narrowed to $10.57 from $11.77 with 84 loads of fabricated product and 38 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $348.33 per cwt, and 50% beef was $77.58.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.36 to $1.46 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.67 1/2 a bushel, down $0.05.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $241.75 per cwt, up $0.39. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $243.27, up $3.90.