Mexico 2024 Beef, Pork Production Seen Growing

Mexico’s 2024 beef and pork production were forecast by the USDA to increase from 2023 because of stronger producer returns from lower feed prices, as well as increased domestic and international demand.

The USDA’s Global Agricultural Information Network made the predictions, adding that beef imports were forecast to remain flat because of sufficient stocks, while pork imports were forecast to recover after falling in 2023.

Mexico’s 2024 beef and pork exports were forecast to increase because of higher production and global demand, albeit modestly.

In 2023, less elevated grain prices, a record-level appreciation of the Mexican peso, and generally favorable weather conditions in livestock production areas were forecast to spur Mexico’s beef and pork production.  Producer input costs were expected to decline along with the stronger peso.

Nevertheless, the strong peso likely will offset any export increases stemming from higher production, as well as increase competition from imports in 2023.  As inflation in Mexico moderates, pork and beef consumption was forecast to increase slightly in 2023 and 2024.

 

LESS DROUGHT

 

Less drought in central and northern Mexico during the current year and less elevated grain prices were expected to support herd development with effects lasting through 2024.

2024 cattle production was forecast at 8.7 million head, a 2% increase over this year, continuing a trend of steady growth over the past decade.  2024 cattle exports were forecast at 1.2 million head, a 9% increase over the 2023 estimate of 1.1 million head.

Potential increased US demand from for feeder cattle from a shrinking 2024 US herd was forecast to boost live exports.  The USDA forecast 2024 Mexican live-cattle imports at 60,000 head, unchanged from 2023, and largely imported for herd genetic improvement.

Higher US cattle prices in 2024, given historically lower stocks in the US, were expected to weigh down increases to Mexico’s live imports.

 

2024 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER

 

Mexico’s 2024 pork and beef production were forecast to grow, with beef production up by nearly 1% over 2023 to 2.24 million tonnes, an anticipated record.  Lower prices for cattle and swine feed were expected to reduce production costs, while demand for beef was expected to increase slightly for local consumption and exports.

Pork production was forecast to increase by 1% to 1.59 million tonnes, somewhat below-average growth compared with previous years because of overall thin margins for producers and an expected downtick in export demand.

Mexico likely will remain the top importer of US livestock and products in 2024.  Mexico’s economic growth over the last decade, steady consumption growth of beef and pork, a shared border, shared infrastructur, and tariff-free market access will continue positioning the US and Mexico as top partners for livestock and products trade.

 

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $180.00 per cwt to $186.55, compared with last week’s range of $174.90 to $189.24 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $282.49 per cwt to $289.65, compared with $283.11 to $292.33.

The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.90 per cwt at $302.39 while select was up $1.15 at $276.16.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $26.29 from $26.48 with 96 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady at $1.85 to $2.05 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.85 3/4 a bushel, up $0.03 1/2.

No contracts were tendered for delivery against the Aug cattle contract Tuesday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $245.02 per cwt, down $0.18.  This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $246.00 per cwt, down $0.97.