Mexico Could Have More Cattle To Sell

If USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates are correct, Mexico may have more cattle to ship to the US over the next couple of years.

A semi-annual report from the Mexico City FAS office said in 2023, Mexico’s beef production was forecast to rise slightly but faces slower consumption growth on a year-to-year basis as food inflation soars.

As herd numbers increase, overall cattle slaughter was expected to rise, the FAS said.  Carcass weights were expected to decrease marginally this year and were offset by larger slaughter numbers of slightly younger animals.

Mexico’s 2023 pork production was forecast to increase by 4.6% because of continued private-sector investment, the report said.  While pork imports were forecast to be 2.7% lower, Mexico was expected to maintain a strong volume of imports to satisfy domestic demand.

Grain and feed prices remain high but have begun to stabilize, offering relief to livestock producers.




FAS/Mexico forecast the 2023 calf crop to rise 1.5% compared with the previous year and in line with the USDA’s official forecast of 8.5 million head.  Additionally, the 2022 estimate remained at 8.4 million head, a 2.5% increase from 2021, and remains in line with the USDA’s official estimate.

FAS/Mexico forecast 2023 cattle exports to increase to 1.1 million head, up 22% from 2022.

FAS forecasted 2023 Mexican beef production to increase by 2% to 2.23 million tonnes from the 2022 estimate of 2.18 million, in line with the USDA’s official number, the report said.

The 2022 production estimate was in line with the official USDA estimate of 2.18 million tones, the report said.  FAS/Mexico forecasted domestic beef consumption to increase by 1% to 1.97 million tonnes in 2023, from the 2022 estimate of 1.95 million.




FAS/Mexico forecasted Mexico’s 2023 pig crop to increase by 3.2%, compared with 2022, reaching 22.4 million head, in line with the USDA Official forecast, the report said.  Mexico’s swine sector continues to grow as live hog prices remain high, demand for pork continues to grow and the country maintains a favorable sanitary status.

In 2023, the FAS forecasted pork production to increase by 4.6% from 1.53 million tonnes, reaching 1.60 million, in line with the USDA’s official estimate, the report said.  This maintains the 2022 production estimate at 1.53 million tonnes, which is 3.1% higher than in 2021.

FAS/Mexico forecasted pork imports to decrease 2.7% to 1.24 million tonnes in 2023, from the 2022 estimate of 1.28 million, based on the expected increase in supply, the FAS said.  The 2022 estimate remained at 1.29 million tonnes, a 10.4% increase from 2021.




The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $160.90 to $162.08 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $159.00 to $161.05.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $251.10 to $255.80 per cwt, versus $244.44 to $255.60.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.71 per cwt at $287.91 while select was up $2.80 at $273.64.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $14.27 from $16.36 with 73 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to down $0.10 at $1.50 to $1.60 a bushel over the Mar corn contract.  Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over Mar, which settled at $6.74 a bushel, down $0.06 1/2.

Six heifer contracts were tendered for delivery on Wednesday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $182.60 per cwt, up $0.01.  This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $187.97 per cwt, up $1.10, and Apr’s $191.75, up $0.95.