The October forecast from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service for 2023 red meat and poultry production was lowered from September, as higher beef and pork production was thought to be more than offset by lower broiler and turkey production.
For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised.
The data was contained in the monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday.
BEEF
The 2023 beef production estimate was raised to 26.976 million pounds from September’s estimate of 26.941 million on expected higher cow and bull slaughter in the second half of the year, which more than offset lowered third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter, the WASDE report said. However, this still falls short of 2022’s production of 28.291 million pounds.
The 2023 forecast increase in total slaughter was offset partially by ideas of lower dressed weights, the USDA said.
The 2024 beef production estimate of 25.275 million pounds was raised from September’s 25.165-million-pound estimate primarily on higher feedlot marketings, the USDA said.
PORK
The 2023 pork production estimate of 27.289 million pounds was raised from September’s 27.159 million for the second half of the year with a higher-than-expected pace of slaughter and upward revisions to the first-half pig crop, the report said. This also was up from last year’s 26.996 million pounds.
The pork production estimate for next year was raised to 27.895 million pounds from September’s 27.335 million as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released Sep. 28, pointed to a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter than previously expected, the WASDE report said.
With larger expected pig crops in the second half of 2023 and first-half 2024, the USDA’s slaughter estimate for 2024 was forecast higher at 27.895 million pounds from September’s 27.335 million, boosting the production forecast.
POULTRY
The 2023 broiler production estimate of 46.494 million pounds was lowered from September’s 46.694 million on current hatchery and slaughter data, NASS said. However, it remained higher than 2022’s production of 46.206 million pounds.
The 2023 turkey production estimate of 5.548 million pounds was lowered from 5.578 million last month based on the most recent production data, the USDA said. However, this year’s production estimate still was more than last year’s 5.222 million pounds.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2023 were lowered on recent hatchery data and expectations for modest growth in production during the year.
For 2024, broiler production was estimated at 47.110 million pounds, down from September’s 47.310 million.
The 2024 turkey production estimate of 5.640 million pounds was lowered from the September estimate of 5.640 million pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $182.00 per cwt to $185.26, compared with the previous week’s range of $182.69 to $187.04 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $285.29 per cwt to $291.98, compared with $286.98 to $292.34.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.39 per cwt at $300.80 while select was up $0.47 at $275.49. The choice/select spread narrowed to $25.31 from $26.17 with 56 loads of fabricated product and 36 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.45 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.93 1/4 a bushel, down $0.02 3/4.
No live cattle contracts were posted for delivery Friday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $250.11 per cwt, down $0.19. This compares with Friday’s Oct contract settlement of $249.87, down $2.15.