The October USDA Cattle on Feed report estimated heifers made up nearly 40% of all cattle on feed, a signal of producer intentions about retaining heifers as replacements, said Rob Ziegler, Extension specialist at the University of Wyoming.
Writing for the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Ziegler said consensus is that the heifer mix needs to be somewhere in the 36% to 37% range to signal signs of herd rebuild, a level not seen since 2018.
And, the bred female market has received less attention, but may be a primary focus for when cattle producers consider increasing their cow herds, he said.
AGGREGATING REPLACEMENTS
The University of Wyoming compiled replacement female prices from 2013 to the present available through the LMIC and aggregated them into the following categories: bred heifers, cows 2-4 years, 5-8 years, and cows more than eight years, Ziegler said.
Ziegler’s article focused on prices in October of 2023 and 2024 where a simple average was calculated as a reference for bred females in their respective age category, he said. These prices were evaluated for changes in price and volume. Then, data from the available 14 states were grouped by region; North Central (CO, MT, NE, WA, WY), South Central (KS, NM, OK, TX), and Southeast (AR, GA, KY, MO, MS).
Replacement female prices in October 2024 were up for all categories and regions compared with October 2023, Ziegler said. The greatest increase in year-over-year prices was for old bred cows in the Southeast, which was up 46%, he said. Young cows in the North Central region showed the smallest price increase at 5%.
The increase in bred cow prices this year from last year may be from the increase in overall beef cattle market prices, as opposed to increased demand for replacement females at this point, Ziegler said.
2024 REPLACEMENT SALE VOLUME DOWN
The year-to-date 2024 replacement cattle sale volume was down 6.61%, compared with the 2023 period, he said. The overall decrease in replacement cattle sale volumes may be a reflection of an overall reduction in the national cow herd size.
Replacement cattle sales volumes in the North Central and Southeast were down 4% and 16%, respectively, year over year, he said. In contrast, replacement cow sales in the South-Central region increased 124%, possibly an indication of liquidation in drought affected areas.
At this point there is little indication beef cattle producers are retaining heifers to increase cow herds, Ziegler said. Although bred cow prices have increased year over year, it is likely driven by overall supply factors, not replacement demand.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $185.00 per cwt to $190.15, compared with last week’s range of $186.88 to $193.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $292.68 per cwt to $294.15, compared with $293.96 to $299.32.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $2.40 per cwt at $306.39 while select was down $0.92 at $270.99. The choice/select spread narrowed to $35.40 from $36.88 with 111 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $325.74 per cwt, and 50% beef was $67.93.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.42 to $1.54 a bushel over the Dec corn contract and unchanged in Kansas at $0.25 over Dec, which settled at $4.30 1/4 a bushel, up $0.03.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $254.26 per cwt, up $0.58. This compares with Wednesday’s Nov contract settlement of $254.80, up $0.55.