November fed cattle sales to beef packers from Kansas feedlots recovered from their uncharacteristic decline in October and were back near the 2016 pace, according to data collected by the Kansas State University.
That data, compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center, showed average feedlot sales to packers in November at 4,526 head, up only 58 head, or 1.30%, from 4,468 a year earlier but up 1,493, or 49.2%, from the 2011-2015 average of 3,033.
The November total also was up 1,383 head, or 44.0%, from the October rate of 3,143. However, traders focus more on comparisons with a year earlier and a long-term average to take into account seasonal changes.
Sales to packers had been running closer to the previous year than the average all through 2016. October’s sudden drop coincided with reports that cattle feeders were holding cattle back trying to get a better price.
OCTOBER DAYS ON FEED ALSO DOWN
However, November’s return to the 2016 sales rate and not beyond coincides with data showing the cattle sold to packers in October also spent far less time in the feedlots than the September or November closeouts.
The average number of days the October closeouts spent on feed was 142, the data showed, compared with 169 for September feedlot sales and 167 for November closeouts.
If sales follow the seasonal trend as shown in the 2011-2015 average, they should have increased in December. December 2016 sales took a sharp upturn, and there could be another sharp rise in December 2017, a market analyst said.
FINAL WEIGHTS BELOW 2016, ABOVE AVERAGE
Final weights of steers and heifers were below the 2016 level but above the 2011-2015 average, the data showed.
In November, the average out-weight of steers was 1,429 pounds, nine pounds, or 0.63%, below the 2016 level of 1,438 pounds but 22 pounds, or 1.56%, above the previous five-year average of 1,407 pounds.
Similarly, the sales weight of heifers in November was 1,275 pounds, down 20 pounds, or 1.54%, from 1,295 in the same 2016 month but 20 pounds, or 1.59%, above the 2011-2015 average of 1,255 pounds.
Using history to gauge December’s closeout weights is a tough nut to crack. The average for steers goes up slightly from November, but it declined in 2016; the average weight for heifers goes down in December from November, but it rose in 2016.
And looking at historical data for average daily gains is no help. The figures show the 2011-2015 average declining a bit in December but going up last year. Average daily gains declined in November from October, but the weather turned cold, which could mean lower daily gains and longer on-feed times.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle traded this week at $118 to mostly $120 per cwt on a live basis, about steady with the bulk of last week’s action, and at $192 to $193 on a dressed basis, steady to up $1.
Only 108 cattle traded Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange video auction at $119.75 per cwt, up $0.75 from the previous week.
The USDA’s choice cutout Thursday was up $0.39 per cwt at $205.69, while select was up $1.26 at $200.87. The choice/select spread narrowed to $4.82 from $5.69 with 134 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $146.47 per cwt, up $1.46. This compares with Thursday’s Jan settlement of $149.17, up $1.30.