Not much will change regarding Oklahoma forage supplies in the next 6-7 months, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, in a letter to Extension Agents called Cow-Calf Corner.
The one exception is the potential for wheat pasture and other cool-season forages in the southern plains, which will need additional moisture through the winter, Peel said.
OCTOBER RAINS
October brought significant rain across most of Oklahoma after a very dry September, coming in the form of a significant fall severe weather season, he said. Thirty-one tornados were reported, a new record for the month and more than for the first nine months of the year.
Wheat planting is finishing in Oklahoma, Peel said. The latest Crop Progress report showed a total of 73% planted as of Oct. 24, slightly behind the five-year average of 80%.
Considerable progress was made in wheat planting the last week of October, he said. While wheat for grain only is still being planted or is newly planted, wheat for forage or dual purpose has progressed significantly with recent rains.
Recent observation showed wheat in stages from planting to barely emerged to several inches tall, Peel said. Most wheat pasture will not be ready for grazing until December, later than usual, but there were reports that some wheat grazing may begin by mid-November.
PROSPECTS
Rain and the revived prospects for wheat pasture lifted calf and stocker prices in October, Peel said. Prices bottomed earlier than usual in the first week of October and have increased counter-seasonally for the last three weeks.
For example, prices for 450-500 pound, Medium to Large No. 1 steers were $167.32 per cwt the first week of October, and averaged $175.69 per cwt the last week of October (Oklahoma combined auctions).
Nationwide, the drought continues as winter approaches, Peel said. Drought developed through 2020 and average drought conditions are slightly worse than the drought conditions at this time last year.
Although there have been some regional changes in the drought situation, the overall picture has not changed much, he said. The country started this growing season with the worst average pasture and range conditions on record and is ending the year in the same condition.
The reemerging La Niña increases the chances for moisture in the northern half of the country and Canada but simultaneously increases the odds of drier conditions redeveloping in the Southwest, Peel said.
November will bring big runs of spring-born calves, although in some drought regions, calves moved out earlier, Peel said. Feeder cattle numbers are expected to be smaller going forward as cattle inventories continue to shrink cyclically.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $125.93 to $127.34 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $124.70 to $127.09. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $195.39 to $198.32 per cwt, versus $195.10 to $196.72.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $1.11 per cwt at $288.49, while select was up $1.59 at $267.72. The choice/select spread narrowed to $20.77 from $21.25 with 94 loads of fabricated product and 46 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Dec, which settled at $5.64 a bushel, down $0.09.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $155.65 per cwt down $0.61. This compares with Wednesday’s Nov contract settlement of $159.17 per cwt, up $1.60.