Old Crop Feed Supplies Look Better On Lower Exports

The USDA’s estimates of corn ending stocks for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years were raised this month, because of lower estimated corn exports for 2022/23, the USDA’s June Feed Outlook said.

The reduction in exports was offset partially by a reduction in corn imports during the current marketing year.  Projections of production and use for all feed grains during the 2023/24 marketing year remained unchanged.

Feed grain supply estimates moved up slightly for 2023/24 to 444 million short tons on higher beginning stocks.  World 2023/24 coarse grain production was projected higher, on an increase of 2.5 million tonnes in Ukrainian corn production.

EU corn imports were projected higher, as the European Union was expected to benefit from higher Ukrainian supplies.  US corn exports for 2022/23 were projected lower, with the slow pace of shipments in October-April supporting a reduced forecast.

Brazilian corn production estimates were higher for 2022/23, while Argentine corn production was reduced because of drought.

 

DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

 

The USDA estimate of US corn exports for 2022/23 was lowered to 1.725 billion bushels, down 50 million from the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.  Corn export sales, as reported in the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s Grains Inspected for Export report, reflected the diminished prospects for US corn exports over the rest of the marketing year.

Total commitments of corn exports (accumulated exports shipped, combined with remaining outstanding sales) showed 1.509 billion bushels as of June 1, down from 2.343 billion in 2021/22.  Through April, US corn exports totaled 1.077 billion bushels, according to data from the US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Corn exports through April were 35% less than last year’s 1.662 billion bushels.  And, current US corn prices in export markets sit well above South American competitors.

The US corn-ending stocks estimate moved higher for 2022/23 on the reduced export outlook.  Corn imports for 2022/23 were lowered to 25 million bushels because of a slow pace and weakening export potential.

The ending stocks for the current marketing year increased to 1.452 billion bushels.  If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio was estimated at 10.6%.

Prices received by farmers for the 2022/23 crop continue at levels seen since the start of the calendar year.  In its latest Agricultural Prices report, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported the national average price received for corn in April was $6.70 a bushel.

Since the marketing year high price of $7.09 per bushel posted last September, corn prices fell through the harvest window and have leveled out.  With limited corn supplies in the later part of the marketing year, the effect of recent price movements is minimal, and the season-average farm price remains estimated at $6.60 a bushel.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $185.00 per cwt to $191.90, compared with last week’s range of $177.80 to $188.00 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.76 per cwt to $295.25, compared with $269.90 to $294.94.

The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.56 per cwt at $337.99 while select was down $0.76 at $309.48.  The choice/select spread widened to $28.51 from $27.19 with 96 loads of fabricated product and 41 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.65 to $1.75 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $6.12 1/2 a bushel, down $0.04 3/4.

No deliveries were tendered against Jun live cattle Tuesday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $228.20 per cwt, up $0.21.  This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $240.45 per cwt, up $1.40.