Cattle carcass weights will rise seasonally in the remainder of the year, but slaughter rates were expected to decline, resulting in 4% to 5% less beef production than the same period last year, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in a newsletter titled Cow/Calf Corner.
The lower steer and heifer carcass weights likely reflect several influences including feedlots becoming more current in marketings, higher feed prices and perhaps a return to longer-term carcass weight trends, Peel said.
SLAUGHTER RATES DOWN
Daily slaughter data through July 17, totaled 17.94 million head, compared with 17.07 million in 2020 and 17.87 million in 2019, he said. Steer and heifer slaughter made up 78.5% of total cattle slaughter at 14.09 million head.
Average weekly yearling slaughter the first 28 weeks of 2021 was 501,392 head, fractionally higher than for the same period in 2019, Peel said. However, Monday-Friday slaughter averaged 2.7% lower than 2019 and was covered by a 31.0% increase in Saturday slaughter.
The 2021 average Saturday yearling slaughter total was 50,430 head compared with 38,492 in 2019, he said. Saturday slaughter accounted for 10.4% of total yearling slaughter in 2021 compared with 7.6% for the same period in 2019.
The daily M-F yearling slaughter averaged 91,471 head in 2021, ranging from a Monday average of 90,110 to a Thursday average of 92,699, Peel said. Single-day maximum slaughter totals ranged from 95,580 head (July 7) to the single biggest slaughter day this year at 97,282 (Feb. 23).
On average, daily yearling slaughter was 95% of the daily maximum, he said. The sum of daily maximums for Monday-Friday suggested that it is possible to slaughter 561,607 head in a week but the weekly maximum thus far in 2021 is 537,447 (week ended May 22).
LABOR CHALLENGES
The labor challenges for packers were particularly acute on Mondays, which have the lowest daily average slaughter level in 2021 and were much more variable, Peel said. Monday slaughter totals were eight times more variable than Thursdays, which had the smallest standard deviation of daily slaughter.
Thus, Monday slaughter averaged 90,110 head with a daily range from 57,928 to 95,727 while Thursday averaged 92,699 ranging from 85,600 to 96,907, he said. The Monday low of 57,928 head occurred during the massive winter storm in mid-February.
Steer carcass weights in the latest data were 888 pounds, down 11 year over year, Peel said. This followed the sharp increase in 2020.
Current steer carcass weights are 23 pounds heavier than this date in 2019, Peel said. Current heifer carcass weights are 813 pounds, down 16 from 829 pounds last year but up 22 from the same date in 2019.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle traded this week at $120 to $125 per cwt, up $1 to $2 from last week. Dressed-basis trades were done at $196 to $198 per cwt, steady to up $2.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $3.50 per cwt at $289.34, while select was up $3.66 at $271.15. The choice/select spread narrowed to $18.19 from $18.35 with 107 loads of fabricated product and 39 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.86 to $1.91 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.70 over Sep, which settled at $5.45 3/4 a bushel, down $0.04 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $155.97 per cwt down $0.18. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $159.20 per cwt, up $0.30.