After dipping a little this year, total per-capita US red meat and poultry consumption was expected to make a small gain next year but fall away in 2023, according to data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Economic Research Service, which were compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Service in Denver.
Over the next couple of years, declines in per-capita beef and turkey consumption were expected to pull back more than chicken and pork. Total meat consumption was forecast this year at 220.27 pounds, down 3.12, or 1.40%, from 223.39 last year.
Total red meat and poultry consumption in 2022 was predicted to be about 220.41 pounds, a gain of 0.14 pound, or 0.06%, from this year but still down 2.98 pounds, or 1.33%, from the 2020 peak of 223.39 pounds. Consumption in 2023 was estimated at 218.54 pounds.
BEEF CONSUMPTION SEEN DECLINING
If total red meat and poultry consumption was expected to lift a little next year, it won’t be in beef, the USDA data showed. Expected per-capita beef consumption this year totaled 57.92 pounds, down 0.45 pound, or 0.77%, from last year’s 10-year peak of 58.37 pounds.
Next year, total per-capita beef consumption was seen at 56.04 pounds, down 1.88 pounds, or 3.25%, from this year’s 57.92-pound estimate. And in 2023, per-capita beef consumption was estimated at 54.98 pounds, which would be down 1.06 pounds, or 1.89%, from the 2022 estimate.
PORK CONSUMPTION SEEN UP THROUGH 2022
Annual per-capita pork consumption was estimated at 57.92 pounds this year, down 0.45 pound, or 0.77%, from the nearby peak last year of 58.37 pounds.
Next year, annual per-capita pork consumption was estimated at 56.04 pounds, down 1.88 pounds, or 3.25%, from this year. 2023 per-capita consumption was pegged at 54.98 pounds.
CHICKEN CONSUMPTION COULD FLUTTER
Total per-capita chicken consumption was expected to flutter over the next couple of years. This year, annual consumption was forecast at 96.54 pounds, down 1.03 pounds, or 1.06%, from 97.57 pounds last year.
However, per-capita chicken consumption next year was seen at 98.90 pounds, up 2.36 pounds, or 2.44%, from this year’s estimate, and 2023 chicken consumption was put at 98.85 pounds.
TURKEY CONSUMPTION TO CONTINUE DECLINE
Annual per-capita turkey consumption was expected to continue a decline begun in 2017 but which could be traced back to a peak in 2002. Turkey consumption this year was forecast at 15.49 pounds, down from 2020’s 15.51 pounds but more than 2022’s estimated 15.36 pounds and 2023’s 14.74 pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $124.70 to $126.23 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $123.44 to $125.75. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $196.33 to $196.72 per cwt, versus $193.78 to $196.35.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.13 per cwt at $283.63, while select was down $0.85 at $261.69. The choice/select spread narrowed to $21.94 from $22.22 with 133 loads of fabricated product and 29 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Dec, which settled at $5.57 1/4 a bushel, up 13 3/4.
Thirteen heifer and two steer contracts were tendered Wednesday for delivery against Oct.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $156.03 per cwt up $0.53. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct contract settlement of $156.50 per cwt, up $0.52 and the Nov settlement of $158.47, down $1.30.