Per Capita Meat, Poultry Disappearance Seen Rising

Per capita red meat and poultry disappearance—the amount available for use in domestic markets, including fresh and processed meat sold through grocery stores and used in restaurants—is expected to increase fractionally in 2022.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service said in its monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: 2022 that the forecast is because of a 0.44% increase in total poultry disappearance that compensated for a 0.31% decrease in total red meat disappearance.

The ERS said that since it does not account for indirect consumer uses such as pet food and food waste, it overestimates actual consumer consumption by using disappearance as its proxy.  2022 meat disappearance was forecast at 224.9 pounds a person, 0.1 pound more than last year.




Per capita beef disappearance this year was expected to decrease by 0.85% because of lower livestock inventory.

However, disappearance for pork, broiler and turkey was expected to increase 0.28%, 0.30% and 1.40%, respectively.

Despite lower expected production, the pork disappearance increase was because of lower expected exports.

The higher expected turkey disappearance marks the first year of increase since 2016.

Sustained by a steady production growth trend, the 2022 broiler disappearance forecast adds to a decade-long stretch of year-over-year increases.




The forecast for 2022 commercial beef production was raised by 195 million pounds from last month to 27.570 billion pounds on higher expected non-fed and fed cattle slaughter.

The fed cattle price was raised for 2022, while the feeder cattle price was lowered.

January’s beef imports totaled 352 million pounds, up almost 57% from a year ago.  The 2022 annual forecast for beef imports was increased by 50 million pounds from last month to 3.42 billion.

January’s beef exports totaled 288 million pounds, up 17% over the previous year.  The beef export forecast for 2022 was raised 30 million pounds to 3.30 billion.




The 2022 pork production forecast was reduced by 65 million pounds from last month on lower-than-expected February slaughter numbers, the likelihood of higher average carcass weights in the second half of the year and evidence of elevated disease risks, also late in the year.

Forecasts for US pork exports in the first and second quarters of 2022 were reduced on weaker demand prospects in major importing regions.  Total 2022 exports were expected to be 6.73 billion pounds, 4.3% less than last year.

There is some evidence that Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome infections in aged wean-to-finish animals that increased in December 2021 may have further diminished these numbers for February.  High mortality rates of currently circulating PRRS variants also may have reduced available slaughter-ready hogs in February.




The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $138.08 to $139.85 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $140.92 to $145.00.  FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $218.66 to $220.18 per cwt, versus $221.90 to $225.95.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.18 per cwt at $258.08, while select was up $1.43 at $250.27.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.81 from $9.06 with 101 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the May futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.00 over May, which settled at $7.38, down $0.28.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $153.14 per cwt up $0.33.  This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $157.25 per cwt, up $0.90.