The ratio of steers to heifers populating US feedlots can give some perspective on how cow/calf producers see profit prospects down the road.
And with the October release of the USDA’s Cattle on Feed report, comes an update of the steer to heifer ratio in feedlots. These figures come quarterly and help estimate the number of heifers being retained for breeding purposes and define the cattle cycle curve, said the Livestock Marketing Information Center in a web site newsletter called In the Cattle Markets.
SLAUGHTER DISRUPTIONS EVIDENT
The US cattle cycle was thought to have turned down last year, as the Jan. 1 beef cattle inventory was lower than the previous year, the LMIC said. Heifers as a percent of cattle on feed climbed through 2019, and that proportion has held rather steady in 2020.
Indications of the slaughter plant disruptions was evident in 3rd quarter figures, where heifers on feed climbed to 38.5%, up from 37.3% in the prior quarter, the LMIC said. Heifers, because of smaller carcass weights, likely were held longer to allow for very heavy steers to have slaughter priority.
The heifer count as of Oct. 1 moved almost a full percentage point lower, even as cattle numbers on feed increased significantly, the LMIC said. The 4th quarter proportion was 37.6% heifers to steers on feed.
DISTRIBUTION DIFFERENCES
The quarterly figures were given for 12 states, the LMIC said. Feedlots that are influenced by dairy and dairy crossbreds tend to have fewer heifers.
Arizona, California and Minnesota have heifers on feed accounting for less than 20% of the totals, the LMIC said. In larger cattle feeding states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado, heifers were more than 42% of the mix.
Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas were close to the national average of 38% to 39%, the LMIC said. Interestingly, Idaho and Washington also had a large volume of heifers on feed at 45% and 46%, respectively.
Beef cow slaughter in the Pacific Northwest, West Coast and Southern Plains has been higher than a year ago since July 1, the LMIC said. The weekly data show region 9 to be the highest, up 31%, followed by region 6 up 16%.
Region 4, and region 10 also were higher than a year ago, the LMIC said. Monthly livestock slaughter data released by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service confirmed September was higher than a year ago across all the regions except regions 2, 3 and 8.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading last week was seen at $104 to $106 per cwt on a live basis, down $3 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was reported at $165 to $166 per cwt, down $3 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $1.13 per cwt at $206.70, while select was up $0.18 at $188.67. The choice/select spread narrowed to $18.03 from $19.34 with 130 loads of fabricated product and 45 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Monday that basis bids from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.08 to $1.20 per bushel over the Dec CME futures contract, which settled at $4.16 a bushel, down $0.01 3/4.
There were no delivery notices against the Oct live cattle futures market Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $133.64 per cwt, down $0.06. This compares with Tuesday’s Oct contract settlement of $134.30 per cwt, up $0.60 and the Nov close of $132.30, up $1.72.