Total US first-quarter red meat and poultry production was down from the same quarter in 2021 and could decline again in 2023, according to data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Livestock Marketing Information Service.
Historical data came from the NASS, while the projections came from the LMIC.
First-quarter US commercial beef production was marginally higher than the same quarter last year and well above what is projected for next year.
US first-quarter pork production was down from a year earlier, but was expected to rise again in 2023.
Ready-to-cook chicken production was up from a year earlier in the first quarter was up from a year earlier, and first-quarter 2023 production was expected to be even higher.
TOTAL MEAT, POULTRY PRODUCTION DOWN
Total red meat and poultry production was listed at 26.255 billion pounds, down 29.0 million, or 1.09%, from 26.545 billion in the year-ago quarter but up 1.138 billion, or 4.53%, from the 2016-2020 average of 25.117 billion. The Q1 2022 production also was up 266.0 million pounds, or 1.02%, from the projected Q1 2023 estimate of 25.989 billion.
Next quarter, total red meat and poultry production was estimated at 25.914 billion pounds, down 405 million, or 1.54%, from 26.319 billion in 2021 but up 1.025 billion, or 4.12%, from the 2016-2020 average of 24.889 billion and down 148 million, or 0.57%, from the projected Q2 2023 production of 26.062 billion.
BEEF PRODUCTION NEAR STEADY
First-quarter beef production was pegged at 6.89534 billion pounds, up 240,000, or 0.003%, from 6.89510 billion a year ago. This also was up 485 million, or 7.57%, from the 2016-2020 average of 6.410 billion and up 344 million, or 5.25%, from the Q1 2023 estimate of 6.551 billion.
Second-quarter 2022 beef production was estimated at 6.735 billion pounds, down 222 million, or 3.19%, from the 2021 quarter’s 6.957 billion but up 296 million, or 4.50%, from the previous five-year average of 6.439 billion. It also was up 140 million pounds, or 2.12%, from the Q2 2023 estimate of 6.595 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATES MIXED
First-quarter commercial pork production was put at 6.871 billion pounds, down 420 million, or 5.76%, from first-quarter 2021 production of 7.291 billion but up 165 million, or 2.46%, from the 2016-2020 average of 6.706 billion. It also was down 35 million pounds, or 0.51%, from the estimate for next year of 6.906 billion.
Second-quarter pork production was estimated at 6.599 billion pounds, down from Q2 2021 production of 6.668 billion but up from the previous five-year average of 6.271 billion. It also was down from the Q2 2023 estimate of 6.637 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $138.00 to $140.71 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $138.08 to $140.00. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $215.97 to $219.71 per cwt, versus $216.09 to $220.18.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.81 per cwt at $262.41, while select was down $0.65 at $252.59. The choice/select spread widened to $9.82 from $8.36 with 107 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.55 a bushel over the May futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.00 over May, which settled at $7.48 1/4, down $0.09 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $154.69 per cwt down $0.28. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $156.77 per cwt, up $0.67.