US 2022 red meat and poultry production forecasts from the USDA Thursday were raised from last month in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Higher 2022 beef and broiler production expectations more than offset a supposed reduction in pork and turkey production, the report said.
Total US red meat and poultry production for 2023 was forecast below 2022, as forecasts for lower beef production more than offset higher pork and poultry production estimates.
For 2022, beef and broiler exports are raised while pork and turkey exports were lowered based on recent trade data.
2022 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER; 2023 LOWER
The USDA’s 2022 beef production estimate was raised 132 million pounds, or 0.48%, to 27.842 billion pounds from 27.710 billion last month. However, this was down 106 million pounds, or 0.38%, from last year’s 27.948 billion pounds.
For 2023, beef production was forecast to be 25.950 billion pounds with expected declines in both fed and non-fed cattle supplies. This would be a decline of 1.892 billion pounds, or 6.80%, from the 2022 estimate.
The higher estimate for 2022 beef production was because more cattle were being placed into feedlots sooner than normally expected because of drought, supporting higher annual fed cattle slaughter, the report said. Additionally, cow slaughter was forecast higher.
The report set this year’s beef exports at 3.356 billion pounds, up 56 million, or 1.70%, from April’s estimate of 3.300 billion but down 91 million, or 2.64%, from, 2021’s 3.447 billion. Beef imports were put at 3.545 billion, up 105 million, or 3.05%, from last month’s 3.440 billion and up 197 million, or 5.88%, from 2021’s 3.348 billion.
For 2023, beef exports were forecast at 2.930 billion pounds, down 517 million, or 15.0%, from last year’s 3.447 billion. Beef imports were predicted to total 3.200 billion pounds, down 148 million, or 4.42%, from last year’s 3.348 billion.
2022, 2023 PORK OUTPUT SEEN LOWER
The 2022 pork production forecast was reduced 36 million pounds, or 0.13%, to 27.039 billion pounds from 27.075 billion last month on lighter expected carcass weights. This was down 636 million pounds, or 2.30%, from last year’s 27.675 billion.
2023 pork production was forecast 326 million pounds, or 1.21%, higher than this year at 27.365 million pounds, with increased farrowings and continued growth in productivity.
2022 pork imports were pegged at 11.408 billion pounds, up from 1.400 billion a month ago and up from 1.180 billion last year. 2023 Pork imports were seen higher at 1.440 billion pounds.
The 2022 pork export forecast was 6.581 billion pounds, versus last month’s 6.595 billion and last year’s 7.030 billion. 2023 exports were placed at 6.510 billion pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $140.00 to $147.00 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $137.25 to $147.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $220.11 to $222.83 per cwt, versus $220.50 to $228.60.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $2.12 per cwt at $257.20, while select was up $2.18 at $244.36. The choice/select spread narrowed to $12.84 from $12.90 with 114 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported that basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.55 to $1.65 a bushel over the Jul futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at even the Jul, which settled at $7.91 1/2 a bushel, up $0.03.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $156.61 per cwt up $0.37. This compares with Thursday’s May contract settlement of $156.87, down $1.27.