The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 was raised from last month on higher forecast beef, broiler and turkey production estimates. This, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report this week.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE WEAKENS
Pork production this year was seen as fractionally lower this month as larger expected fourth-quarter slaughter is more than offset by lower production in the second and third quarters. The new estimate was 27.371 billion pounds, down 5 million, or 0.02%, from the June forecast of 27.376 billion but up 375 million, or 1.39%, from last year’s 26.996 billion.
Pork production expectations for next year were reduced as producers indicated intentions to reduce farrowings in the second half of 2023, and lower farrowings were expected to continue into the first half of 2024. The new estimate was 27.335 billion pounds, down 15 million, or 0.05%, from June’s 27.350 billion but up from last year by 339 million pounds, or 1.26%.
However, a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter was expected to partly offset the lower farrowings. Nonetheless, smaller-than-previously-expected pig crops in late-2023 and early 2024 could result in a lower pork production forecast.
Pork import estimates for 2023 were raised slightly on recent trade data; export forecasts were raised for 2023 and 2024 on continued demand strength from China and several Latin American countries.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RISES
Beef production forecasts for 2023 were raised with higher expected steer and heifer, cow, and bull slaughter. The new forecast was 27.161 billion pounds, up 75 million, or 0.28%, from 27.086 billion last month but down 1.130 billion, or 3.99%, from 2022’s 28.291 billion.
The 2024 beef production forecast was lowered as expected fed cattle marketings were shifted into late 2023 rather than early 2024. The new forecast was 24.700 billion pounds, down 95 million, or 0.38%, from 24.795 billion last month and down 2.461 billion, or 9.06%, from the 2023 forecast.
Beef import estimates for 2023 were raised on recent trade data. Export forecasts for the year were reduced slightly; but no change was made to the export forecast for 2024.
POULTRY PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2023 broiler and turkey production estimate was raised 270 million pounds, or 0.51%, to 53.114 billion pounds from 52.844 billion in June’s report on slaughter data for the second quarter. This also was up from last year’s 51.997 billion pounds by 1.117 billion pounds, or 2.15%.
The 2023 chicken production forecast was 47.099 billion pounds, up 200 million, or 0.43%, from June’s estimate of 46.899 billion and up 893 million, or 1.93%, from 2022’s 46.206 billion.
No changes were made to the broiler export forecasts.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $178.00 per cwt to $186.59, compared with last week’s range of $177.10 to $190.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $280.75 per cwt to $285.96, compared with $280.53 to $289.54.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $4.07 per cwt at $306.91 while select was off $0.92 at $280.18. The choice/select spread narrowed to $26.73 from $29.88 with 118 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.75 to $1.95 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $4.93 1/2 a bushel, up $0.17 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $239.69 per cwt, up $1.58. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $245.00 per cwt, down $1.57.