The Annual Retail All Fresh Beef Demand Index compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center using Bureau of Labor Statistics and USDA Economic Research Service data shows a demand decline the last two years.
The Retail Beef Demand Index started in 2000 with a value of 100, the LMIC graph said.
BEEF DEMAND STILL HIGH
However, despite the decline over the last two years, the 2023 demand index, at 120, is still the third highest in the data set.
That implies, a market analyst said, that the demand index has room to move lower and still be a good relative value. And, the rise to the index high of 126 in 2021 also shows a demand surge from the most recent low of 106 in 2018,
From its beginning in 2000, the Retail Meat Demand Index graph has two peaks. The first was in 2005 when it hit 114, and the second was in 2015 when it was at 111.
The lowest the Index has ever been was in 2010 when it was 92.
The LMIC broke down the Retail Fresh Beef Demand Index into quarters. The first-quarter 2024 index was at 129, and the second-quarter 2024 index was calculated at 118. The third-quarter index was not yet listed.
The first-quarter index peaked at 135 in 2022, and the next lowest was this year’s quarter. The third-lowest was 124 in 2023, then 119 in 2021 and 115 in 2020.
Beyond that, there were two significant demand peaks, one at 2015 at 110 and one in 2005 at 114. The low was in 2010 at 90.
Second-quarter beef demand was less extreme, with the peak coming in 2021 at 120 and the next highest was 2022 and 2024 at 118. Two more tops occurred in 2004 at 115 and 2005 at 113. The 2015 top was 107. The low was in 2010 and 2011 at 90.
The third-quarter Retail Fresh Beef Demand Index showed a similar pattern to the annual, with a peak in 2020 at 124 followed by a reading of 121 in 2921, 115 in 2022 and 119 in 2023. Two other peaks stand out – one in 2004 at 111 and one at 110 in 2015. The low was in 2009 at 88.
The fourth-quarter index has an outstanding peak in 2921 at 139, far above the second-highest reading at 122 in 2022. The 2023 fourth-quarter index was 118.
2014 had a reading of 113, and 2004 had a peak at 116. The low was in 2009 at 92.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $181.00 per cwt to $183.02, compared with last week’s range of $179.95 to $184.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $284.25 per cwt to $290.12, compared with $283.90 to $289.32.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $2.53 per cwt at $301.38 while select was down $2.47 at $289.75. The choice/select spread narrowed to $11.63 from $11.69 with 151 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $364.62 per cwt, and 50% beef was $88.90.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.35 to $1.47 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.12 3/4 a bushel, up $0.00 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $243.39 per cwt, down $0.05. This compares with Wednesday’s Sep contract settlement of $242.82, down $0.47.