Retail egg prices per gram of protein shot higher last year, diverging from the gentle rise recorded over the previous three years, according to February’s USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.
The pace of retail egg price gains last year also was in marked contrast to the continued gentle gains of beef, pork or chicken, the report said.
The first-quarter table-egg production forecast was revised downward, based on softer-than-expected laying flock indicators, the USDA said. Consequently, the first-quarter wholesale egg price forecast was revised upward.
LOWEST COST NO MORE
Historically, eggs and chicken legs have been the two lowest-cost sources of protein among livestock, poultry and egg products, the USDA said. From 2019 through 2021, eggs were the cheapest source of protein in 20 out of 36 months.
However, during 2022, successive High Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks adversely affected the egg supply, the Outlook report said. The associated supply shocks, combined with a strong egg demand, pushed retail egg prices to record-high levels.
As egg prices escalated through 2022, on a gram basis, eggs as a protein source were competitively priced with boneless chicken breasts and pork chops starting in October and ground beef in December.
BEEF AND CATTLE
Based on slaughter data through early February, the pace of cattle slaughter was faster than expected last month, the USDA said. However, winter weather appears to have impeded feeding performance as well as taken a toll on cow and bull weights.
A temporal shift in fed cattle marketings into the first quarter and an outlook for higher cow slaughter more than offset a decline in expected dressed weights, the report said. Projected 2023 beef production was raised 50 million pounds to 26.5 billion.
Fed cattle price forecasts this year were raised on firm demand and lighter carcass weights, the USDA said. The import forecast for 2023 was raised on early customs and import inspection data to 3.4 billion pounds. Export projections for 2023 were unchanged at 3.1 million pounds.
PORK AND HOGS
January hog slaughter and pork production were higher than expected, although anticipated lower dressed weights were expected to mitigate the effect of the higher numbers on quarterly production, the USDA said. First-quarter pork production estimates were reduced 32 million pounds to 7.010 billion, 1.5% more than production a year ago.
First-quarter hog price forecasts were reduced $5 per cwt to $58 per cwt on general weak demand for pork cuts, the USDA said.
Pork exports for 2022 wrapped up at 6.3 billion pounds, 9.8% less than shipments in 2021, the report said. Exports were forecast at 6.35 billion pounds in 2023, up fractionally from last year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $161.30 to $162.08 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $159.00 to $161.05. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $251.10 to $255.80 per cwt, versus $244.44 to $255.60.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $4.31 per cwt at $287.20 while select was up $2.79 at $270.84. The choice/select spread widened to $16.36 from $15.15 with 91 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to down $0.10 at $1.50 to $1.60 a bushel over the Mar corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over Mar, which settled at $6.80 1/2 a bushel, up $0.02 3/4.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery on Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $182.59 per cwt, up $0.38. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $186.87 per cwt, up $0.35.