Seasonal Rise Keeps Canada On-Feed Numbers Above Average

A seasonal rise in Canada’s number of cattle on feed kept the Oct. 1 total larger than the 2016-2020 average, according to data from CanFax, a private consulting group.

CanFax collects the data from member feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan and sends the data for total numbers on feed and monthly placements to the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver for compilation and publication on its website.

 

On-Feed Numbers Climb Seasonally

 

The number of cattle munching grain in Canada’s feedlots on Oct. 1 came to 883,427 head, up 71,656, or 8.83%, from 811,771 a month earlier.  This was down 46,026, or 4.95%, from last year’s 929,453 head but up 186,937, or 26.8%, from the previous five-year average of 696,490.

Total on-feed numbers have been less than the corresponding 2021 month since Aug. 1.  However, they have continued to be more than the 2016-2020 average all year.

Last year, the number of cattle on feed ran slightly higher than the average through June and then held an increasingly large margin above average until Oct. 1.  November and December numbers, while still larger than the average, did not widen their margin with the average.

Going forward, the number on feed should continue to increase to the Dec. 1 peak of more than 1.0 million head as pastures continue to give out for the winter.

 

PLACEMENTS MORE THAN 2021, AVERAGE

 

At the same time, September feedlot placements in Canada were larger than either last year or the 2016-2020 average.

September placements in Alberta and Saskatchewan totaled 263,109 head, up 173,296, or 193.0%, from August’s 89,813, up 59,404, or 29.2%, from last year’s 203,705 and up 59,633, or 29.3%, from the previous five-year average of 203,476.

September feedlot placements usually jump in September, although this year’s increase was more intense than most.  Data for average placements shows a 77.4% month-to-month increase.

September’s rate of increase in feedlot placements models last year’s October placement rate, which was the annual peak.  The annual peak in Canadian feedlot placements usually occurs in October, so it’s reasonable to think it will be the 2022 peak again this year, a market analyst said.  However, since September’s placements seemed to come a month earlier than usual, it wouldn’t be surprising to see October 2022 placements fall short of the 2021 high of 415,466 head.

After October, feedlot placements in Canada drop off sharply.  Seasonal factors play a major role in Canada’s feedlot placements since the summer and winter seasons are so different.  Winter pastures disappear there while grazing remains possible in parts of the US, particularly where winter wheat is available.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $146.15 to $146.40 per cwt, compared with last week’ range of $144.00 to $148.91.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $229.12 to $229.63 per cwt, versus $225.42 to $230.93.

The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.16 per cwt at $248.14 while select was up $2.67 at $219.61.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $28.53 from $30.04 with 76 loads of fabricated product and 37 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were up $0.10 at $2.10 to $2.25 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.00 over Dec, which settled at $6.83 1/2, down 6 1/4.

No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Monday.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $173.08 per cwt down $1.03.  This compares with Monday’s Oct contract settlement of $174.75, up $0.95.