Cull cow prices just keep going higher, and the general trend likely will continue – at least for another few weeks.
History shows that there is a definite seasonality to cull cow prices, and there is no reason to think this year will be any different.
COW PRICES CLIMBING
USDA weekly slaughter cow prices as gathered, compiled and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver show prices climbing unevenly this year and following the seasonal trend. However, this year, as they did last year, slaughter cow price gains have been more exaggerated than the 2019-2023 average.
The USDA’s weekly price for 35% to 90% lean slaughter cows in the Southern Plains last week was $162.95 per cwt, a 2025 high so far. This was up $6.19, or 3.95%, from $156.76 a week earlier, up $23.38, or 16.8%, from $139.57 a year earlier and up $87.94, or 117.2%, from the previous five-year average of $75.01.
Additionally, last week’s price was up from the first week of January’s price of $121.46 by $41.49, or 34.2%. This compares with the five-year average’s gain over the same period of $17.24, or 29.8%.
ANNUAL PEAK EXPECTED SOON
According to the 2019-2023 average, the annual peak in slaughter cow prices should have arrived the first week of June, but that clearly hasn’t happened yet. Last year, the peak came the second week of July.
To be fair, the five-year average shows peak slaughter cow prices wavering within a $3 range through July, indicating that the annual peak in any given year can come any time in June or July.
From there, the weekly price for slaughter cows declines into November where it makes a feeble attempt at a year-ending rally, probably because most co2w/calf producers are wrapped up in holiday activities that slaughter cow numbers at auction tend to dwindle, a market analyst said.
CUTTER COW PRICES WAFFLING
Meanwhile, cutter cow prices, while near the 2025 high, appear to be struggling to make it higher than the current annual high of $133.57 per cwt set the third week of April.
The average annual high in the 2019-2023 period was $70.07 set the second week of August, and last year’s weekly high price for cutter cows was $131.94, set the first week of October. So there’s still time for this year’s weekly cutter cow price to make its annual high, topping April’s peak.
In general, cutter cow prices tend to follow the same trend as slaughter cows, rising to a mid-year high and then tapering off toward fall with a limp rise in December.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $235.68 per cwt to $239.53, compared with last week’s range of $225.15 to $243.37 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $367.99 per cwt to $377.02, compared with $353.24 to $376.32.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $4.92 per cwt at $393.79 while select was up $1.85 at $374.59. The choice/select spread widened to $19.20 from $16.13 with 58 loads of fabricated product and 17 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $395.24 per cwt, and 50% beef was $199.61.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.22 to $1.30 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.32 3/4, down $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle delivery notices were posted.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $311.04 per cwt, down $0.42. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $304.17, up $0.82.